国际金融危机以来美国制造业回流政策评述  

Review of the US'Manufacturing Reshoring Policy in Post-Crisis Era

作　　者：胡鞍钢[1,2] 任皓[2] 高宇宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学国情研究院 [2]清华大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2018年第2期112-130,共19页International Economic Review

基　　金：中宣部全国哲学社科规划办高端智库建设项目(20155010298)

摘　　要：在美国总统特朗普的经济政策中,"制造业回流"政策占据了重要的地位。本文通过分析美国制造业自金融危机之后的新调整,总结了美国制造业发展的新趋势,并结合经济学理论,研究发现美国制造业主要由高技术产业驱动,就业流失的主要原因在于技术进步。制造业回流,尤其是制造业就业回流在美国并不具备经济学意义上的合理性。通过进一步分析美国制造业回流的政治内涵,提出美国制造业回流是在当前逆全球化背景下,美国加强国际领导权的重要表现,反映出美国对于当今国际政治经济格局转变的焦虑。最后,通过分析中美两国制造业的关系,驳斥了中国是美国制造业就业流失原因的观点,提出中美制造业的未来在于进一步推动贸易与投资自由化,努力将"中国制造"转变为"中美制造",共同开创全球制造业创新发展的新局面。The manufacturing reshoring policy is on top of the Donald Trump's agenda.By analyzing the development of the US manufacturing after the global financial crisis in 2008,this article summarizes the new development trend of the US manufacturing,and,based on empirical evidence and economics theories,argues that the US manufacturing is mainly driven by hightech industries and technological progress is the main cause of the loss of manufacturing jobs.Manufacturing reshoring,especially reshoring of manufacturing jobs,is not supported by any economics theory.Further analysis of the political connotation of the manufacturing reshoring policy shows that against the backdrop of the current anti-globalization tide,manufacturing reshorting only reflects the country's attempt to strengthen its global leadership and its anxiety over the changing international political and economic landscape.Finally,based on analysis of the relationship between Chinese and US manufacturing,the article refutes accusation that China is the main culprit for the loss of US manufacturing jobs.It also proposes that in the future,the two countries should further promote trade and investment liberalization and jointly promote global manufacturing innovation and development to facilitate their cooperation in manufacturing.

关 键 词：制造业回流 经济规律 政治目标 共赢 

分 类 号：F414[经济管理—产业经济]