大震前地震活动标度不变性的特征变化  

Characteristic changes of scale invariance of seismicity prior to large earthquakes: A constructive review

作　　者：李强[1] 孙业君[1] Li Qiang;Sun Yejun(Jiangsu Earthquake Agency,Nanjing 210014,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省地震局,南京210014

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2018年第3期3-15,共13页Recent Developments in World Seismology

基　　金：江苏省科技支撑-社会发展项目(BE2016804)资助

摘　　要：近年来,大震前地震活动标度不变性的特征变化研究引起了人们的极大关注。然而,由于不同地区的地震活动特点不同,要获得这种特征变化并不容易。本文首先介绍了这方面研究的重要进展,这些进展对地震预报和地震活动性的研究者来说有很大的参考价值。其次,讨论了几种标度不变性方法(局域标度特性、多重分形谱、Hurst指数分析和分形维数方法)的优缺点。最后,提出了有关该研究的建设性建议:当人们试图通过标度不变性方法获取大震前的前兆信息或地震活动分形特征时,需要考虑方法的优缺点以提高地震预报效能,否则地震预报效能会大大降低。Recently,research on the characteristic changes of scale invariance of seismicity before large earthquakes has received considerable attention.However,in some circumstances,it is not easy to obtain these characteristic changes because the features of seismicity in different regions are various.In this paper,we firstly introduced some important research developments of the characteristic changes of scale invariance of seismicity before large earthquakes,which are of particular importance to the researchers in earthquake forecasting and seismic activity.We secondly discussed the strengths and weaknesses of different scale invariance methods such as the local scaling property,the multifractal spectrum,the Hurst exponent analysis and the correlation dimension.We finally came up with a constructive suggestion for the research strategy in this topic.Our suggestion is that when people try to obtain the precursory information before large earthquakes or to study the fractal property of seismicity by means of the above scale invariance methods,the strengths and weaknesses of these methods have to be taken into consideration for the purpose of increasing research efficiency.If they do not consider the strengths and weaknesses of these methods,the efficiency of their research might decrease greatly.

关 键 词：地震活动 标度不变性 异常变化 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]