柬埔寨2017年乡选前后的政党政治博弈及未来政局走向  

The Party Politics Rivalry around Cambodia's 2017 Commune Election and its Influence on Cambodia's Future Politics Development

作　　者：祁怀高 李彦良 QI Huai-gao ;LI Yan-liang(Institute of International Studies,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433;School of International Relations&Public Affairs,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际问题研究院,上海200433 [2]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海200433

出　　处：《南洋问题研究》2018年第1期63-76,共14页Southeast Asian Affairs

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"‘一带一路’沿线支点国家与我国发展战略的衔接研究"(15BGJ012)

摘　　要：2017年6月举行的柬埔寨第四届乡分区理事会选举(以下简称"乡选")是柬埔寨2018年国会大选的前奏和预演。在此次乡选中,尽管洪森领导的人民党再次获胜,但主要反对党救国党与人民党的差距进一步缩小。此次乡选反映出柬埔寨政党政治博弈的一些新特征:柬埔寨民众求新图变的意愿十分强烈;青年选民积极参与到柬埔寨政治活动中;社交媒体在柬埔寨政治中的作用凸显;人民党和救国党在农村地区的影响力呈现此消彼长态势。此次乡选结束后,柬埔寨政党政治进入新一轮激烈博弈期。人民党对救国党展开了强烈的攻势,救国党主席金速卡被逮捕,救国党也被解散。人民党在2018年国会大选中取胜的可能性很大。但人民党如何努力实现更有质量的经济增长,如何开展更具开放性的精英吸纳,如何与反对党之间建立包容性的政党竞争体系,都是需要迫切解决的现实问题。从更长远的未来看,政治强人洪森何时选择退休和如何实现权力代际更替将成为未来柬埔寨政局发展的关键。Cambodia’s fourth Commune Election held in June 2017 is a preceding and predictive event of the nation’s 2018 national assembly election(general election).The Cambodian People’s Party(CPP)lead by Hun Sen has won the 2017 commune election again,but its leading towards the Cambodian Nation’s Rescue Party(CNRP),the major opposition party,has been narrowed down further.The 2017 commune election reveals some new features of Cambodian party politics,such as the strong aspiration of change from the Cambodian people,the active political participation from young voters,the significant role of social media in Cambodian politics,and the shifting landscape between CPP and CNRP in the rural region.After the 2017 commune election,Cambodian politics entered a new round of intense struggle.CPP launched fierce attack on the CNRP,arrested the opposition party’s leader Kem Sokha,and dismissed CNRP.It is highly likely that CPP will win the 2018 general election.But the ruling party still needs to face with real challenges,such as securing economic growth with high quality,improving elite mobility,and establishing a tolerant party competition system.In the long run,the retirement of the strongman Hun Sen and the intergeneration transition of power will be the key issues to Cambodian politics in the future.

关 键 词：柬埔寨 政党政治 乡选 人民党 救国党 

分 类 号：D7377.335.64[政治法律—政治学]