中国技术密集型产业快速增长的动因分析  

Motivation Analysis for Rapid Growth of Technology-intensive Industries in China

作　　者：李兰兰[1] 姚月 李方一[1] LI Lanlan;YAO Yue;LI Fangyi(School of Management,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第1期1-9,共9页Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金(41401126);教育部人文社会科学基金(14YJC790061;14YJC630061)

摘　　要：文章对2002年以来中国技术密集型产业快速增长的动因进行了结构分解,定量评估了消费、投资、出口、进口、技术和增加值系数变化六个因素的贡献。研究表明:2002-2012年,去除价格因素后中国技术密集型产业增加值年均增速为10.8%,高于同期GDP增速;其中,消费、投资、出口、进口、技术和增加值系数变化对增长的贡献分别为19.7%、51.1%、37.0%、5.5%、0.7%、-14.0%。对比两个阶段的动因差异,投资增长、消费增长、进口替代对技术密集型产业增加值的促进作用增强,出口扩张的促进作用减弱,经济服务化使技术变化由促进作用变为抑制作用,增加值系数的抑制作用减弱。总的来看,技术密集型产业受到了出口增速下滑、国内需求刺激政策、进口替代加强、经济服务化趋势及增加值系数降低的影响。最后,文章还针对技术密集型产业持续增长提出了对策建议。The motivation of rapid growth of technology-intensive industries in China from 2002 to 2012 was analyzed by structural decomposition in six respects such as consumption,investment,export expansion,import substitution,technology change and value-added ratio change.The results showed that from 2002 to 2012,the average annual growth rate of value-added of technology-intensive industries was 10.8%,in which the contribution rate of consumption,investment,export expansion,import substitution,technology change and value-added ratio change was 19.7%,51.1%,37.0%,5.5%,0.7%and-14.0%,respectively.This average annual growth rate was higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period.Comparing the differences of causes of the change between two stages,the promotion effect that investment,consumption growth,import substitution played on technology-intensive industries was enhanced,the promotion effect of export expansion was weakened,the promotion effect of technology change changed to inhibition effect and the inhibition effect of value-added ratio change was weakened.The growth rate of value-added of technology-intensive industries was influenced by falling of export growth rate,domestic demand stimulus policies,import substitution,trend of economic services and decrease of value-added ratio.Finally,some suggestions for the healthy development of technology-intensive industries were raised in this paper.

关 键 词：技术密集型产业 投入产出分析 结构分解 增加值 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]