省域农地城市流转规模及其影响因素作用的空间异质性研究  

Spatial heterogeneity of provincial rural-urban land conversion scale and effects of its influential factors

作　　者：宋敏[1] 王登娜 SONG Min ;WANG Deng-na(School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan Hubei 430073, China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第1期54-62,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"土地利用空间管制下耕地保护差别化生态补偿机制研究:尺度依赖与空间差异"(批准号:71774174);"基于负外部性治理的农地城市流转管制研究"(批准号:71303260)

摘　　要：作为城镇化过程中土地资源配置的必然过程,大规模的农地城市流转会给耕地保护和土地资源的可持续利用带来巨大压力。研究农地城市流转规模及其影响因素作用程度的空间异质性对于揭示农地城市流转的复杂性,进而采取差别化的、有针对性的管制措施控制农地城市流转规模具有重要意义。鉴于此,本文在阐释中国大陆31个省(自治区、直辖市)农地城市流转规模在经度、纬度方向上的变化规律的基础上,运用全域及局域自相关模型分析了省域尺度上中国农地城市流转规模的空间异质性,继而进一步采用地理加权回归模型揭示了省域农地城市流转规模各影响因素作用程度的空间异质性,结果表明:(1)31个省(自治区、直辖市)的农地城市流转规模在水平方向上自西向东呈稳定上升趋势,纬度方向上在中国中部省份达到最高值并分别向南北两个方向省份逐渐下降,呈现倒"U"型。(2)全国范围内省域农地城市流转规模呈现出一定程度的空间关联特征,省域农地城市流转规模的局部自相关随区域而变化,体现出空间异质性。(3)全社会固定资产投资额、居民人均可支配收入、年初耕地面积、第三产业比重四个因素影响省域农地城市流转规模,且影响程度随空间位置不同而变化,除全社会固定资产投资对省域农地城市流转规模的影响程度在全国范围内空间分布较均匀外,其他三个因素的影响程度呈现较大的空间异质性。因此,应在充分考虑空间异质性的基础上,通过提高规划方案或管制措施的差异性和针对性实现对农地城市流转规模的有效管制。As the inevitable process of land resources allocation in urbanization,large scale of rural-urban land conversion will bring enormous pressure on the protection of cultivated land and the sustainable use of land resources.Studying the spatial heterogeneity of rural-urban land conversion scale and effects of its influential factors is substantial for revealing the complexities of rural-urban land conversion and is helpful for regulating its scale via adopting differentiated and targeted control measures.This paper firstly explores the law of rural-urban land conversion scale of31provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in longitude and dimension direction.Based on that,it then analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of rural-urban land conversion scale on provincial scale by employing the global autocorrelation model and local autocorrelation model.Moreover,the spatial heterogeneity of effects of influential factors on rural-urban land conversion scale is studied.The results show that rural-urban land conversion scales of31provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)display a steady upward trend in the horizontal direction and an inverted‘U’type in latitude direction which means the scales reach the maximum value in provinces located in Central China and then decline gradually in provinces located in North and South China respectively.The provincial scales of agricultural land circulation in China are spatially related and the local auto correlation of provincial scales changes according to the regions they belong to which reflect the spatial heterogeneity.Four influential factors including total investment in fixed assets,residents per capita disposable income,and quantity of farmland at the beginning of the year as well as the tertiary industry proportion have influences on rural-urban land conversion scale and the degree of influence varies with the spatial position.Besides the factor of total investment in fixed assets,all the other factors have great spatial heterogeneity of the degree of influence.

关 键 词：农地城市流转 规模 影响因素 空间异质性 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]