华北平原的极端干旱事件与农村贫困:不同收入群体在适应措施采用及成效方面的差异  

Extreme drought events and rural poverty:differences on farmers' adaptive behavior and production impacts among different income groups in North China Plain

作　　者：杨宇[1] 王金霞 侯玲玲 黄季焜 YANG Yu;WANG Jin-xia;HOU Ling-ling;HUANG Ji-kun(School of Business, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu Sichuan 610059, China;School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学商学院,四川成都610059 [2]北京大学现代农学院,北京100871

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第1期124-133,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"气候变化对社会经济系统的影响与适应策略"(批准号:2012CB955700);国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目"气候变化对中国粮食安全的长期与短期影响及适应性对策"(批准号:71161140351);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"气候变化对农村贫困的影响及适应策略研究:基于西南地区的实地调研"(批准号:17YJCZH223);四川省软科学计划项目"四川粮食主产区的农地适度规模经营:规模报酬;规模收益与生产"(批准号:2017ZR0051);2017年气象灾害预测预警与应急管理研究中心开放研究项目"气候变化背景下的四川省粮食安全及适应策略研究"(批准号:ZHYJ17-YB06)

摘　　要：日益严重的极端气候事件对农业生产脆弱性的影响逐渐加剧了农村贫困,作为粮食主产区的华北平原面临着极端气候事件对农业生产的严峻冲击,为此,实证分析了华北平原不同收入群体应对极端干旱事件的适应行为及极端干旱事件对其农业生产影响的差异,以期为政府制定应对气候变化的适应行为对策及精准扶贫政策提供依据。本文基于华北平原5省889个农户的1 663地块的实地调研数据,运用两阶段的思路构建计量经济模型进行分析研究,结果表明:(1)相比于较高收入群体,较低收入群体由于自身人力资本、社会资本及生产资产的劣势可能导致其显著减少了0.12次灌溉频次和降低了2.1%的概率去采用地面管道节水技术以应对极端干旱事件;(2)每增加1次的灌溉频次将平均挽回约21%的单产损失和采用地面管道节水技术相比于未采用也将挽回12%的单产损失;(3)相比于较高收入群体,低收入群体在面对极端干旱事件的冲击时显著地增加了约2%~3%小麦单产损失。基于此,在制定减少因灾致贫的贫困农户群体和预防农村贫困危机的政策时,要考虑极端气候事件的影响。具体而言,为了增强农户应对极端气候事件的适应能力,尤其对农村收入较低(贫困)群体,政府适应政策不要忽略农户人力资本、社会资本及生产资本等因素影响,这样才能更好地发挥政策的精准扶贫效果;在华北地区干旱化趋势明显的状况,加大推广灌溉和地面管道节水技术适应行为以减少极端干旱事件的潜在生产损失和减少贫困群体。Under these contexts that increasing serious impacts of extreme climate events on agriculture production have gradually aggravated rural poverty,and North China Plain(hereinafter NCP),as one of main grain yield regions,have faced the increasing challenges from extreme climate events,this paper empirically analyzes the differences on farms’adaptive responses to extreme drought events and production impacts of them among different rural income groups in NCP to provide the empirical evidences for planning and implementing policies on adaptation measures against climate change and poverty alleviation.Using a large-scale survey of1663wheat plots of889households of5provinces in NCP,this paper builds two-stage econometric model to do quantitative analysis.The main results of this study show that:①Relative to the high income groups,the low income groups significantly decrease by0.12times of irrigation and2.1%of probability on adopting surface pipe to extreme drought events due to the weakness of their human capital,society capital,and production capital.②When wheat is shocked by a severe drought,the wheat loss will reduce by about21%with an increase of one time of irrigation and12%on the conditions of adopting surface pipe.③Relative to the high income groups,the low income groups obviously increase the loss of about2%-3%.Based on the above conclusions,when formulating and implementing poverty alleviation policies,government should take consideration on the impacts of extreme climate events.Specifically,to improve farmers’adaptive capacity(especial for the low income groups)and well implement poverty alleviation policies,government should pay attention to the impact of human capital,society capital,and production capital.When more severe drought occurs,government should improve irrigation technologies by enhancing irrigation intensity and increasing irrigation efficiency,to mitigate its negative effects and realize poverty alleviation.

关 键 词：极端干旱事件 不同收入群体 适应行为 生产影响 华北平原 

分 类 号：F320.3[经济管理—产业经济]