基于CMIP3与CMIP5模式对北太平洋大气环流模态的评估分析  

The Assessment of North Pacific Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Models

作　　者：陈峥 甘波澜 吴立新[1,2] CHEN Zheng;GAN Bo-Lan;WU Li-Xin(The Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography,Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China;Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266003 [2]青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室,山东青岛266200

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期1-11,共11页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41521091;41490643;41490640)资助~~

摘　　要：以美国国家海洋和大气局-环境科学协作研究所(NOAA-CIRES)二十世纪大气再分析数据集第二套c版(Twentieth-Century Reanalysis Dataset Version 2c;20CR V2c)资料所提取的二十世纪北太平洋大气环流模态作为观测参考值,利用泰勒图方法与谱分析方法,分别对太平洋北美型遥相关(Pacific-North America Teleconnection;PNA)与北太平洋涛动(North Pacific Oscillation;NPO)模态在国际耦合模式比较计划第三阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3;CMIP3)与CMIP5两套多模式数据集合中的表现进行了从空间型到时间周期的综合评估与对比分析工作,并对PNA的4个异常中心以及NPO的2个偶极子进行简化命名。评估结果表明:整体上CMIP5模式对PNA与NPO的空间型模拟能力要优于CMIP3模式,80%的CMIP5模式都能很好的体现与观测PNA/NPO模态相近的空间分布与振幅,而CMIP3模式只能达到约60%。在模式模拟优秀率上,CMIP5也远高CMIP3约10%。在使用谱分析方法对两套资料对时间模拟能力评估结果表明:CMIP5相比于CMIP3并没有太大的进步,整体合格率与CMIP3持平。其中大部分模式能够很好的模拟出同观测一致的PNA 1~2年和4~6年的年际周期,对其20~25年的年代际周期的模拟相对较差;而对NPO来说,更多模式的功率峰值都在1~2年周期上,而且只有约一半模式能够体现与观测相同的2~4年周期。Based onNOAA-CIRESTwentieth-Century Reanalysis dataset version 2c(20CR V2c)data,the North Pacific Atmospheric Circulation Patterns at twentieth century have been captured as for observational reference.By using Taylor diagram and spectrum analysis,thespatiotemporal features ofPacific-North American teleconnection(PNA)and North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)in twentieth century simulations are evaluated among Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3(CMIP3)/CMIIP5 models,and also,the simpler name for each PNA(NPO)quadrupole(dipole)is defined.Analysis reveals that while the 80%of CMIP5 models and 60%of CMIP3 models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern.As for excellent models in spatial simulations,CMIP5 models are 10%more than CMIP3’s.As for the temporal featuresanalyzed by power spectrum,CMIP5 models show little improvement.Most models simulate the 1~2 years and 4~6 years interannualvariabilities of PNA,qualitatively consistent with the observation,whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal(20~25 years)variability of PNA.And for NPO,most models show 1~2 years interannualperiod,only half of the models can simulate 2~4 years period which consistent with the observation.

关 键 词：太平洋-北美型遥相关(PNA) 北太平洋涛动(NPO) 泰勒图 谱分析 

分 类 号：P732.6[天文地球—海洋科学]