2006—2015年南宁市水资源承载力变化研究  

Research on the Change of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Nanning City During 2006—2015

作　　者：杜懿[1,2,3] 麻荣永 赵立亚[1,2,3] DU Yi;MA Rongyong;ZHAO Liya(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [3]广西大学广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《人民珠江》2018年第3期7-10,15,共5页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51369005);广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室系统性研究项目(2013ZDX04)

摘　　要：依据南宁市2006—2015年的城市统计数据,在众多影响因素之中选取了适合南宁市的20个评价指标,并运用主成分分析法对南宁市水资源承载力的年际变化情况进行了研究分析。结果表明,影响南宁市水资源承载力的主成分共有4个,分别是有关人口、社会经济及水资源自然状况等特征指标,四大主成分的累积贡献率达到了90%以上,其中第一主成分占到了65.34%。通过计算综合得分,可以看出南宁市近10 a来水资源承载力大致呈波动上升趋势,尤以2008、2013年增加最为显著。此外,结合R/S分析法还得出未来几年南宁市水资源承载力可能继续提升,但趋势不够明显。Based on the statistical data from 2006 to 2015 in Nanning city,20 evaluation indexes were selected among the all influencing factors,and the annual change of water capacity in Nanning city was analyzed by using principal component analysis.The results showed that there are 4 main components affecting the water resources carrying capacity of Nanning city,including population,social economy and natural state of water resources.The cumulative contribution rate reached more than 90%,with the first principal component accounting for 65.34%.Through the synthesis score,it could be seen that the carrying capacity of water resources in Nanning city had fluctuated roughly in the past ten years,especially in 2008 and 2013.In addition,combined with R/S analysis,the water resources carrying capacity of Nanning city might continue to improve in the next few years,but the trend was not obvious.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 主成分分析 R S分析 综合得分 趋势变化 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]