基于投影寻踪法的太湖流域主要城市水资源利用效率评估  

Assessment of Water Resources Utilization Efficiency in Major Cities of Taihu Basin Based on Projection Pursuit Method

作　　者：胡恒博 甘升伟 俞芳琴 高怡 张海龙 向龙[2] HU Hengbo;GAN Shengwei;YU fangqin;GAO Yi;ZHANG Hailong;XIANG Long(Monitoring Center of Hydrology and Water Resources of Taihu Basin Authority,Wuxi 214024,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Water Bureau of Pukou District,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]太湖流域水文水资源监测中心,江苏无锡214024 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]浦口区水务局,江苏南京210098 [4]河海大学水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《人民珠江》2018年第3期49-53,共5页Pearl River

基　　金：南京市水务科技项目;国家自然科学基金项目(51309078);十二五科技支撑计划(2012BAK10B04)

摘　　要：为合理评估太湖流域主要城市水资源利用效率现状,采用层次分析法从指标基本集里选取8个指标构建水资源综合利用效率评估体系;运用因子分析和Ward系统聚类方法获取经验等级;以经验等级和所构建指标体系为基础建立投影寻踪模型,并用遗传算法求解。根据求解结果,苏州和无锡的水资源综合利用效率较高,嘉兴和湖州的水资源利用效率较低,其余处于中等水平。分析发现水资源综合利用效率与经济发展水平和区域产业结构有较好的相关关系,水资源利用效率高的地区呈现出人均GDP高、工业用水比例高、单位GDP化学需氧量排放量少等显著特点。In order to evaluate the present situation of water use efficiency in the main cities of Taihu Basin,eight indexes are selected from the basic index set to construct the water resources comprehensive utilization efficiency evaluation system by analytic hierarchy process(AHP).The factor analysis and Ward hierarchical cluster method are used to obtain the experience level.The projection pursuit model was built based on the experience level and the index system,and genetic algorithm was used for solving the model.According to the solution,the comprehensive utilization of water resources in Suzhou and Wuxi is higher,on the contrary,it is lower in Jiaxing and Huzhou,while the rest is at the middle level.The results showed that the comprehensive utilization efficiency of water resources has a good correlation with economic development level and regional industrial structure.There were some primary features in the regions with high water use efficiency,such as higher GDP per capita,higher proportion of industrial water and less chemical oxygen demand emissions for per unit of GDP.

关 键 词：水资源利用效率 投影寻踪 层次分析法 太湖流域 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]