白龟山水库防洪调度风险研究  

Study on flood control schedule risk in Baiguishan Reservoir

作　　者：徐章耀 刘永强 XU Zhangyao;LIU Yongqiang(Henan Baiguishan Reservoir Authority,Pingdingshan 467031,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省白龟山水库管理局,河南平顶山467031

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2018年第3期73-76,共4页Water Resources Development and Management

摘　　要：为了挖掘白龟山水库调蓄能力,协调兴利与防洪之间矛盾,探讨提高汛限水位的可能性,在分析白龟山水库调整汛限水位所涉及影响因素的基础上,系统分析水库防洪调度的主要风险因素,利用蒙特卡罗(MonteCarlo)模拟技术,研究建立白龟山水库防洪调度风险模型,结果表明适当抬高白龟山水库汛限水位增加的系统风险是可以接受的。Main risk factors of reservoir flood control scheduling are systematically analyzed on the basis of analyzing the influence factors about Baiguishan Reservoir in adjustment of flood limit water level in order to excavate regulation and storage ability of Baiguishan Reservoir,coordinate the contradiction between conservancy benefit and flood control,and explore the possibility of improving flood limit water level.Monte Carlo simulation technique is utilized for studying and establishing flood control scheduling risk model in Baiguishan Reservoir.The results show that it is acceptable to suitably raise the system risk of flood limit water level increase in Baiguishan Reservoir.

关 键 词：白龟山水库 防洪调度 调度风险 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]