基于前景理论和TOPSIS的船舶航路选择决策方法  

A Decision Method for Route Selection of Ships Based on Prospect Theory and TOPSIS

作　　者：吕正祥[1,2] 杨星 陈蜀喆[1,2] 胡佳颖[1,2] 马杰 LYU Zhengxiang;YANG Xing;CHEN Shuzhe;HU Jiaying;MA Jie(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,武汉430063

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2017年第6期78-84,共7页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51479157)资助

摘　　要：为使船舶航路选择决策能够体现决策者个体主观偏好特征,研究一种前景理论与逼近理想解(TOPSIS)相结合的决策方法。根据航路选择特征,定义航路选择决策的价值函数并构建前景价值矩阵,然后考虑船型差异,设置不同的参考点。应用TOPSIS的基本思路,通过各指标的属性值到正、负理想解的距离求出各航路选择方案相对接近度,考虑决策者对损失敏感程度的差异性,按照接近度对备选方案分别进行优劣排序。以某港口3条进出港航路方案为例进行分析,研究不同船型在不同损失敏感程度下的航路选择决策。研究结果表明,决策者不同的个体主观偏好下航路选择最优方案会呈现差异,说明决策者的主观偏好对其航路选择具有较大的影响。In order to make route selection of ships reflects subjective preference of decision makers,a method based on prospect theory and the theory of order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)is proposed.According to characteristics of route selection,a value function and a prospect value matrix are proposed.Differences of ship types are considered,then different reference points are set.TOPSIS theory is conducted to evaluate relative proximities for different routes,the steps based on value differences within each index from negative to positive values.All options consider different sensitivity to loss of decision-makers,and in accordance with relative proximity,they are ranked from superior to inferior.To evaluate the proposed model,a case study of three routes in a port is analyzed.Route selection of different ship types under different sensitivity to loss is studied.The results show that the optimal option varies with different subjective preferences of different decision-makers.It can prove that subjective preferences of the decision maker have a greater impact on route selection.

关 键 词：航运安全 航路选择 前景理论 TOPSIS 多属性决策 

分 类 号：U697.3[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]