广州市污染季节空气质量预报效果评估及误差分析  

Evaluation and Error Analysis on the Effect of Air Quality Forecast in Guangzhou during the Polluted Season

作　　者：张金谱 梁桂雄 冯彪 邱晓暖 陈瑜 ZHANG Jin-pu;LIANG Gui-xiong;FENG Biao;QIU Xiao-nuan;CHEN Yu(Guangzhou Environmental Monitoring Center,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510030,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市环境监测中心站,广东广州510030

出　　处：《环境监控与预警》2018年第2期40-44,共5页Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning

基　　金：广州市科技计划基金资助项目(201604020006)

摘　　要：基于广州市2016年第四季度空气质量实测及预报数据,对广州市污染季节空气质量预报效果进行了评估,结果表明,2016年第四季度广州市空气质量级别预报准确率83.7%、AQI范围预报准确率67.4%、首要污染物预报准确率67.2%、综合考核评分87.4分、相关系数0.78,预报效果总体良好,预报准确率在优良级别时相对较高,而在轻度污染以上级别时相对较低。预报误差分析表明,气象预报精细化程度不足、模式预报不确定性等客观因素,预报员缺乏对污染过程物理化学机制的深入理解等主观因素共同导致了预报的误差。Based on the measured and the forecast data of air quality of the fourth quarter of 2016 in Guangzhou City,this study evaluated the air quality forecast effect of Guangzhou during the polluted season.The results showed that in the fourth quarter of 2016,the forecast accuracy of air quality level in Guangzhou was 83.7%.The forecast accuracy of AQI range was 67.4%,the forecast accuracy of primary pollutants was 67.2%,the comprehensive assessment score was 87.4,and the correlation coefficient was 0.78.The prediction results were generally good.The forecast accuracy is relatively high at good air quality grades and relatively low at polluted grades.Forecast error analysis showed that the objective factors,such as the lack of high resolution weather forecasting,the uncertainty of model forecasting and the subjective factor like the forecasters′lack of in-depth understanding of the physico-chemical mechanisms of pollution processes,lead to errors in forecasts.

关 键 词：广州 空气质量预报 效果评估 误差分析 

分 类 号：X831.03[环境科学与工程—环境工程]