河北省技术进步与就业增长关联效应研究  

A Study on Correlation Effect between Technology Advance and Employment Growth in Hebei Province

作　　者：黄梅丽[1] 陈宝珍[2] 苏妍嫄 王治虎 HUANG Meili;CHEN Baozhen;SU Yanyuan;WANG Zhihu(School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China;School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China;Shenzhen Shenyuan Consulting Co.,Ltd,Shenzhen 518057,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学环境与化学工程学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]深圳市深远企业顾问有限公司,广东深圳518057

出　　处：《燕山大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2018年第2期90-96,共7页Journal of Yanshan University:Philosophy and Social Science

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目"创新生态系统视域下河北省特色小镇培育策略研究"(HB17YJ110);2017年河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地(区域经济发展研究中心)经费资助(JJJD1709)

摘　　要：技术进步不仅是影响就业的重要因素,同时也是促进社会经济健康稳定发展的重要驱动力。在系统回顾国内外最新研究成果的基础上,运用回归模型对河北省1978—2014年技术进步与就业总量、产业就业结构的关联效应进行了单位根检验、协整检验以及误差修正模型分析。实证研究结果表明,河北省就业总量对技术进步存在积极影响,同时技术水平每变化1%就会导致就业量同方向变化0.0718%。此外,技术进步对第二、三产业就业结构具有双向负效应,而与第一产业就业结构之间并不存在长期的稳定关系。建议通过依托技术进步和劳动力素质提升、推动产业结构调整和供给侧改革,积极发展特色园区经济和特色小镇建设,推动就业增长。Technical progress is not only an important factor affecting employment,but also a crucial driving force for healthy and stable socioeconomic development.Having systematically reviewed the latest studies in this domain at home and abroad,this paper researches the correlation effect between technology advance and total employment and industrial employment structure of Hebei Province(1978-2014)by using the regression model.Through panel unit root tests,co-integration test and error correction model analysis,this study gets the empirical results showing that the technology advance has positive effect on the total employment in Hebei Province,and each 1%change in technology will lead to change in employment in the same direction by 0.0718%.In addition,technology advance has a bidirectional negative effect on employment structure of the Secondary industry and Tertiary Industry,while there is no long-term stable correlation between technology advance and the primary industry.We should develop characteristic park economy and town construction actively relying on technological progress,improvement of the labor and promotion of industrial restructuring and supply-side reforms to promote employment growth.

关 键 词：技术进步 就业总量 产业就业结构 关联效应 特色小镇 

分 类 号：F424.6[经济管理—产业经济]