基于联系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断分析方法  

Assessment and Diagnosis Analysis Method for Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Connection Number

作　　者：金菊良[1,2] 沈时兴[1,2] 郦建强[3] 崔毅[4] 吴成国[1,2] JIN Juliang;SHEN Shixing;LI Jianqiang;CUI Yi;WU Chengguo(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute,MWR,Beijing 100120,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120 [4]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期1-9,共9页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401303;2016YFC0401305);国家自然科学基金项目(51579059;51479045)

摘　　要：为在随机、模糊、未确知等不确定性条件下定量评判和诊断分析区域水资源承载力系统的总体状况和发展趋势,用联系数有效处理水资源承载力评价指标与评价标准间的不确定性,提出用最小相对熵原理综合评价样本联系数和评价指标值联系数,构造了减法集对势这一新的集对势函数,并用于测度区域水资源承载力系统在当前宏观期望层次上所处的确定性状态和发展趋势、诊断识别水资源承载力的脆弱性指标,进而建立了基于联系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断分析的一套方法(CNAD)。CNAD在安徽省淮北地区的应用结果表明:淮北地区2004、2010、2020年的水资源承载力等级均介于承载力一般等级与较弱等级之间;这3 a的评价样本联系数、评价指标值联系数、平均联系数值中只有2020年的评价指标值联系数处于偏反势(接近反势的临界值),其余联系数均处于反势,说明该地区水资源承载力的综合发展趋势为负向发展,水资源承载状态十分严峻。CNAD充分挖掘了水资源承载力评价标准等级与评价指标样本值之间各单指标联系数的评价信息,评价和诊断的结果可靠、合理,方法直观、简便、通用性强,在各种实际资源环境承载力评价和诊断分析中具有重要的推广应用价值。In order to quantitatively judge the overall status of water resources carrying capacity system and diagnose the key indexes which led the system locate vulnerability status under the random,fuzzy or unascertained complex conditions,connection number method was used to effectively handle the uncertainty between assessment indexes and grading standard of regional water resources carrying capacity,the minimum relative entropy principle was used to combine assessment sample connection number and assessment indexes connection number,subtraction based set pair situation is proposed to estimate the deterministic state and development trend of regional water resources carrying capacity system at present from macro-level and to identify vulnerability indexes,and then connection number based assessment and diagnosis analysis method for water resources carrying capacity,named CNAD for short,was established.The research results of CNAD were applied to assess the water resources carrying capacity of Huaibei City show that the water resources carrying capacity grades in 2004,2010 and 2020 are between the general grade and the weak grade,the comprehensive development trend of the region water resources carrying capacity is negative.The assessment and diagnosis analysis results of CNAD are reasonable and reliable owing to the comprehensive utilization of assessment information of single-valued connection number,CNAD is simple and convenient,and CNAD can be applied to assess and diagnose different actual regional resources and environment carrying capacity.

关 键 词：水资源安全管理 水资源承载力评价 诊断分析 集对分析 联系数 减法集对势 偏联系数 淮北市 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程]