基于风险的内转塔单点系泊线强度设计  

A risk-based strength design of a turret single point mooring

作　　者：王浩[1] 何鑫[1] 唐友刚[1] 孙丽萍[2] 付礼鹏 刘骄 WANG Hao;HE Xin;TANG Yougang;SUN Liping;FU Lipeng;LIU Jiao(School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300354,China;School of Shipbuilding Engineering,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300354 [2]哈尔滨工程大学船舶工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《海洋工程》2018年第2期30-37,共8页The Ocean Engineering

基　　金：工信部资助项目(G014614002)

摘　　要：随着安全管理意识的提高,海洋工程结构物的设计正在由基于规范的设计逐步转变到基于风险的设计。根据系泊线年腐蚀磨损量,按照钢缆和锚链的截面损失率,考虑截面损失变化的不确定性,建立系泊线承载能力随时间变化的概率密度模型。根据势流理论,建立FPSO及其系泊系统的水动力模型,求解设计海况下系泊线张力的时间历程,拟合系泊线最大张力的概率分布。根据可靠性理论,求解系泊线断裂的概率。按照系泊系统的不同工作年限,绘制系泊系统失效概率变化的曲线。结果表明,不同的风险接受准则,以及系泊缆的直径缩减速率对于系泊线的抗拉强度和寿命具有重要影响。概率化的系泊系统风险评估工作,为基于风险的FPSO系泊系统设计提供了参考。With the increasing attention paid to safety management,the recent development of an offshore structure’s design process is from a standard-based method to a risk-based method gradually.Under the annual corrosion and abrasion amount,according to the section loss rate of the wire rope and mooring chain,a time variable probability density model of the mooring line bearing capacity is established with the consideration of the uncertainty of the section loss rate.Based on the potential flow theory,a hydrodynamic model of an FPSO with its mooring system is established to obtain a time history of the mooring line tension under the design of sea condition,and to fit the probability distribution of the maximum mooring line tension.According to the reliability theory,the probability of the mooring line fracture is accessed.With different service years,a curve of mooring system failure probability is plotted.It shows that the risk acceptance criterion and the diameter reduction rate are key factors to a mooring line’s strength and life.A probability based risk assessment provides a reference to a risk-based design of an FPSO’s mooring system.

关 键 词：FPSO 单点系泊 可靠性 水动力 风险评估 

分 类 号：U661.43[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]