行业异质性视角下中国碳排放影响因素研究  

Research on the Influencing Factors of China's Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Industry Heterogeneity

作　　者：赵玉焕[1] 孔翠婷[1] 李浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国能源》2018年第3期22-31,共10页Energy of China

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金面上项目"北京市居民消费结构变动对碳排放的影响研究"(编号:9172015);北京市社会科学基金一般项目"北京市出口贸易的经济利益和环境成本研究"(编号:17JDYJB010)

摘　　要：本文基于资本密集度差异,中国行业碳排放影响因素进行了研究。将国民经济7大行业划分为资本密集型和劳动密集型两种类型;应用LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)方法的两种分解形式,将1995—2014年中国两种类型的产业和7个细分行业CO_2排放变化量分解成5种效应:CO_2排放因子变动效应、能源结构效应、能源强度效应、活动效应和规模效应。研究结果表明:活动效应是资本密集型与劳动密集型行业CO_2排放增长的正向驱动因素;能源强度效应是CO_2排放增长的主要负向驱动因素;能源结构效应对劳动密集行业CO_2排放的抑制作用大于资本密集型行业,但总体作用有限;规模效应的作用方向具有不确定性。细分行业分解结果表明:活动效应促进了除电力行业外的CO_2排放,规模效应和能源结构效应分别对建筑业和电力行业的CO_2排放促进作用最大。在研究结论的基础上,本文为中国行业碳减排提出相应政策建议。Based on the difference of capital-intensity among industries,applying the LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)decomposition method,this paper divides seven national industries into two types:capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries;and decomposes the driving factors of carbon emissions into five types:CO2 emission factor effect,energy structure effect,energy intensity effect,activity effect and scale effect;and analyzes the contribution of the above five types of effects to the carbon emissions in China’s seven sub sectors between 1995~2014.The results show that:the activity effect is a positive driving factor of carbon emissions both in capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries;the energy intensity effect is a main negative driving factor.The energy structure effect is a negative driving factor to carbon emissions,and plays a more important role in labor intensive industries on carbon emissions than the capital intensive industries,but the overall effect is limited;the direction of scale effect is uncertain;the carbon emission decomposition results of each industry show that except the electric power industry,activity effect is the main positive driving factor of carbon emissions.The scale effect and the energy structure effect play the most important role in carbon emissions in the construction industry and the power industry,respectively.Finally,based on the results of this study,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for China’s carbon emission reduction.

关 键 词：CO2排放 影响因素 资本密集型行业 劳动密集型行业 LMDI 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]