一种基于直接蒙特卡洛法的电动汽车充电负荷模型  

Electric Vehicle Charging Load Model Based on Direct Monte-Carlo Method

作　　者：蒋林洳 万伟江 丁霄寅 李涛永[1] 张元星[1] 张晶[1] JIANG Linru;WAN Weijiang;DINA Xiaoyin;LI Taoyong;ZHANG Yuanxing;ZHANG Jing(China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China;State Grid Quzhou Power Supply Com pany,Quzhou 324000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192 [2]国网浙江省电力公司衢州供电公司,浙江衢州324000

出　　处：《供用电》2018年第4期20-25,13,共7页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目"基于充电网络与车联网平台的能源互联网生态体系关键技术与模式研究及示范应用";国网浙江省电力公司科技项目"电动汽车交直流充电接口一致性检测关键技术研究"(B342YD170004)~~

摘　　要：电动汽车作为国家发展战略的重要组成部分,现已形成一定的产业、市场基础,进入到政策、市场的双驱动发展阶段。在使用成本低、可选车型增加、配套设施逐渐完善、民众认知度提高等因素的共同驱使下,电动汽车将快速发展。电动汽车充电运营市场由众多运营商共同参与、用户自主选择,充电站建设规划、充电策略优化等都可提高运营商的盈利,因此,电动汽车充电负荷预测尤为重要。文章提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛法的电动汽车负荷模型,将电动汽车接入电网看作规律性概率事件,研究充电负荷影响因素的概率特性,利用蒙特卡洛法模拟单台电动汽车充电负荷,叠加后得到电动汽车充电负荷曲线,并借助私家车出行统计数据验证了该模型的有效性。As a national development strategy,electric vehicle has now formed a considerable industry and market base and its development is influenced by policy and market at the same time.Since the cost o f using electric vehicle decreases,the number of optional models increases and the supporting infrastructures are improved,public awareness raises and the electric vehicles will develop rapidly.A large number o f operators participate in EV charging market,so EV users can choose their charging service providers.Under this situation,EV charging load forecast is particularly important since it makes sense to the charging station construction planning and charge strategy optimization,which help operators gain more income.This paper presents an electric vehicle charging load forecast model based on Monte-Carlo,considering electric vehicle charging as a probability event.After studying the probabilistic characteristics o f typical influencing factors,we simulate every single electric vehicle charging load and then get charging load curve,and then use the private car travel statistics verify the validity of this model.

关 键 词：电动汽车 充电负荷预测 蒙特卡洛 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]