基于跨理论模型的小汽车向自行车出行分阶段转移过程  

Staged approach from driving to bicycling based on transtheoretical model

作　　者：舒诗楠 边扬[1] 荣建[1] 李爽[2] 马俊来 Shu Shinan;Bian Yang;Rong Jian;Li Shuang;Ma Junlai(Beijing Engineering Research Center of Urban Transport Operation Guarantee,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning and Design,Beijing 100045,China;Beijing Tsinghua Tongheng Urban Planning and Design Institute,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学北京市城市交通运行保障工程技术研究中心,北京100124 [2]北京市城市规划设计研究院,北京100045 [3]清华同衡规划设计研究院,北京100085

出　　处：《东南大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第2期373-380,共8页Journal of Southeast University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61672067;71501014)

摘　　要：以跨理论模型为基础,对10个社区的出行者开展问卷调查,将转移行为划分为前意向、意向、准备、行动与维持5个阶段.基于此,针对前后相邻的2个阶段,利用混合选择模型构建4个分阶段模型,刻画分阶段转移过程,研究个人特征、出行特征、客观环境、主观心理与小汽车限制措施对于推进不同阶段间转移的影响机理.结果表明,小汽车限制措施仅能促进行为意向的产生;主观心理与客观环境的影响阶段不同,说明柔性措施与硬性措施的作用阶段不同;感知环境障碍作用于每个阶段,而客观环境仅作用于2个阶段,说明客观环境改善后通过配合宣传推广让出行者感知到自行车出行环境的改善至关重要.Based on the transtheoretical model,a questionnaire survey was conducted in 10 communities,and travelers were divided into five stages of change:pre-contemplation,contemplation,preparation,action,and maintenance.Moreover,aiming at adjacent two stages,four staged transition models were established using a hybrid choice model.These models described a staged change process and revealed the influence mechanism of personal characteristics,travel characteristics,objective environment,subjective psychology,and car restrictive measure between different stages.The results show that car restrictive measure can only promote the production of the behavioral intention.The influenced stages of the subjective psychology and the objective environment are different,so the influenced stages of the soft policy and the hard measure are different.The perceived environment affects every stage,but objective environment only affects two stages.It means that making travelers perceive bicycling friendly by propagandizing and popularizing may be more important.

关 键 词：出行方式转移 混合选择模型 自行车出行 跨理论模型 短距离出行 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]