基于蒙特卡洛的线导鱼雷发现概率快速解算方法  

Fast Calculation Method for Detection Probability of Wire-guided Torpedo Based on Monte Carlo

作　　者：黄湘鹏 李士刚 徐继华[3] HUANG Xiang-peng;LI Shi-gang;XU Ji-hua(Comprehensive Planning Bureau of Naval Equipment Department in ShangHai,Shanghai 200120;Naval Military Representative Office of Space System in Shanghai,Shanghai 201109;Jiangsu Automation Research Institute,Lianyungang,222061,China)

机构地区：[1]海装上海局综合计划处,上海200120 [2]海军驻上海地区航天系统军代室,上海201109 [3]江苏自动化研究所,江苏连云港222061

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2018年第2期86-89,共4页Command Control & Simulation

摘　　要：蒙特卡洛算法随着时间的积累,精度会越来越高,应用在线导鱼雷发现概率的计算上时也是如此。但是在战场上,往往需要在短时间内得到一定精度的线导鱼雷发现概率,以抢占制敌先机。针对此种情况提出一种基于蒙特卡洛的线导鱼雷发现概率快速解算方法。新方法通过统计使用蒙特卡洛算法,模拟计算鱼雷发现概率时各个计算模块的时间分布,找出耗时较多的算法模块,进行针对性优化,从而达到缩短用时的目的。仿真试验结果表明,快速解算方法在保证结果精度的前提下,明显缩短了线导鱼雷发现概率蒙特卡洛算法的解算时间。As time goes on,the accuracy of Monte Carlo algorithm will get higher and higher,which is also the case when calculating the probability of finding the wire-guided torpedo.However,on the battlefield,it is often necessary to obtain a certain degree of detection probability of a wire-guided torpedo in a short period of time so as to seize the opportunity of enemy control.In this paper,a fast Monte Carlo-based method for discovering probability of wire-guided torpedoes is proposed.The new method uses the Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate the time distribution of each calculation module when calculating the torpedo discovery probability,and optimize the most time-consuming algorithm to achieve the purpose of shortening the time-use.The simulation results show that the fast solution method can shorten the solving time of the Monte-Carlo algorithm for the discovering probability of wire-guided torpedoes under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of the results.

关 键 词：线导鱼雷 蒙特卡洛 解算时间 发现概率 

分 类 号：TJ630[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] E925.23[军事—军事装备学]