可再生能源发电的电量-电价动态仿真  

Dynamic Simulation on the Contracted Price and Capacity for Renewable Energy Source Power

作　　者：李仲[1] 孔令丞[2] 梁玲[3] LI Zhong;KONG Lingcheng(School of Management,Shanghai University Of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China;School of Business,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China;Tourism and Event Management School,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学 管理学院，上海 201620 [2]华东理工大学商学院，上海 200237 [3]上海对外经贸大学会展与旅游学院，上海 201620

出　　处：《上海管理科学》2018年第2期96-100,共5页Shanghai Management Science

基　　金：国家自科基金面上项目"碳强度目标下可再生能源发电产业链的定价机制研究"(批准号:71273091)

摘　　要：针对售电商从发电商那里以不确定的批发价格购电,然后以相对稳定的电价出售给电力消费者,通过构建模型来描述发电商-售电商之间的Stackelberg关系,研究竞价上网和管制零售电的混合型电力市场中间歇性可再生能源发电的投资决策。进而,借助随机仿真法拟合可再生能源电波动在时间上的自相关性和实时电价的均值回归性,重点研究间歇性可再生能源的可得性与最优产能组合,仿真模拟发电投资的最优容量决策;探讨实时价格波动性和供给不确定性对实时电价的影响,为可再生能源发电实践提高决策的效率。In hybrid electricity markets which consist of a competitive upstream wholesale market and a regulated downstream markets,an electricity retailer purchases electricity from generator in the whole-sale electricity market with a volatile spot price and then sells it to end consumers at a fixed regulated price.In this article,we model the Stackelberg game between the electricity retailer and generator and then examine their investment decisions.By capturing the auto-correlated characteristics of wind speeds and mean reverting characteristics of spot price through stochastic stimulation,we find the optimal mix of renewable energy source electricity(RES-E)and convention electricity,explore the impact of spot price fluctuation and supply uncertainty on spot price and thus improve the efficiency for RES-E promotion.

关 键 词：可再生能源 容量规划 间歇性能源 动态仿真 

分 类 号：F014.31[经济管理—政治经济学]