基于资源环境承载力的山东省沂源县耕地保有量预测  

Forecast for the Cultivated Land Quantity in Yiyuan County of Shandong Province Based on Resources and Environment Carrying Capability

作　　者：唐丽静[1] 王冬艳[1] 李红[1] TANG Li-jing;WANG Dong-yan;LI Hong(College of Earth Science/Jilin University,Changchun 130061,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学地球科学学院,吉林长春130061

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期72-75,共4页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41201158);吉林省科技发展计划项目(20170101076JC)

摘　　要：以山东省沂源县为研究区,选取影响资源环境综合承载力的关键要素,从不同角度对2020年研究区单因素可承载人口进行预测,采用加权线性和法估算基于资源环境综合承载能力的适度人口规模。鉴于粮食安全视角下的耕地保有量预测仍是主流,本文结合相关粮食安全标准及研究区粮食实际消费状况,确定研究区目标年耕地保有量。结果表明:2020年耕地保有量不应低于31005.27 hm^2;严格控制建设占用耕地,以粮食安全为前提进行农业内部结构调整,开展土地综合整治、高标准基本农田建设项目,耕地规模化利用、先进耕作技术引进是提升耕地综合承载力的有效途径。Yiyuan County of Shandong is taken as the research area,the key factors that affect the resources and environment carrying capability are selected,the population can be predicted by the single factor of the research area in 2020 from different perspectives,the weighted linear and method are used to estimate the moderate population size based on resources and environment carrying capability.The prediction of cultivated land ownership based on the food security perspective is still the mainstream,this paper combines relevant food safety standard and the actual consumption of food in the research area to determine the cultivated land in the objective year.The results show that:the cultivated land should not be less than 31005.27 hm2;controlling strictly the construction occupied land,considering food security before agricultural internal structural adjustment,carrying out comprehensive land improvement and high standard farmland construction projects and farmland scale utilization as well as introduction of advanced farming techniques are effective ways to improve the comprehensive bearing capacity of cultivated land.

关 键 词：资源环境 承载力 耕地保有量 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]