基于系统动力模型的四川省液化石油气水运路径优化  

Optimization of the Water Transportation Route of LPG in Sichuan Province on the System Dynamic Model

作　　者：林建[1] 沈雨晴[1] LIN Jian;SHEN Yu-qing(School of Economics and Management/Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期155-158,共4页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：2016年四川省社科规划基地项目(SC16E106)

摘　　要：液化石油气(LPG)广泛应用于汽车、城市燃气、有色金属冶炼等行业,对我国国民经济发展至关重要,鉴于其主要运输渠道通过水路运输,因此,对水运路径优化配置具有重要的现实和战略意义。本文对四川省液化石油气水运配送的状况做了较为深入地分析,利用STELLA9.1软件建立了液化石油气需求量和水路输送量的仿真预测模型,基于四川省LPG历史数据进行了系统动力学仿真模拟,筛选出LPG船舶运力的优化调配方案,借此合理规划川内的LPG运力调配及物流路径。The liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)is widely applied to cars,urban gas,non-ferrous metal smelting and so on,it is important for the national economic development in China,in view of its main transportation channel is transported by waterway,it is of great realistic and strategic significance to optimize the water transportation path.This paper deeply analyzed the current situation of LPG water transportation in Sichuan Province and established the simulation prediction model of LPG demand and water transport volume using the STELLA9.1 software.Based on the historical data of LPG in Sichuan,the simulation of system dynamics is carried out and the optimal deployment scheme of LPG shipping capacity is selected to reasonably plan the LPG transportation capacity and logistics route in Sichuan.

关 键 词：液化石油气 系统动力模型 路径优化 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]