新能源汽车关键原材料全球供应风险评估  

Evaluation of Global Supply Risk of Critical Minerals for New Energy Vehicles

作　　者：王昶[1,2] 孙晶 左绿水[1,3] 宋慧玲 Wang Chang;Sun Jing;Zuo Lyushui;Song Huiling(School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;Institute of Metal Resources Strategy,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;Sustainable Minerals Institute,The University of Queensland,St Lucia,QLD 4072,Australia)

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]中南大学金属资源战略研究院,湖南长沙410083 [3]Sustainable Minerals Institute,The University of Queensland,St Lucia,QLD 4072,Australia

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2018年第4期83-93,共11页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“基于国家金属资源安全视角下的城市矿产开发利用研究”(14ZDB136)，国家社科基金一般项目“我国工业化中后期稀有金属资源安全态势与供给保障机制研究”(13BGL105)，国家自科基金重点项目“经济新常态下国家金属资源安全管理及其政策研究”(71633006),湖南省教育厅创新平台开放基金项目“新能源汽车关键性金属安全评估及保障对策研究”(16K101)。

摘　　要：近年来,新能源汽车井喷式的发展对关键原材料形成了强劲的需求,使原材料面临更加严重的供应风险。本文界定了钴、镍、锂、稀土等23种新能源汽车关键原材料,从地质性、技术性及经济性因素,社会发展水平和监管政策因素以及地缘政治因素3个影响因素出发,设计了5项二级指标,对新能源汽车关键原材料的全球供应风险进行定量评估,并进一步分析了城市矿产循环利用对新能源汽车关键原材料供应风险的调节效应。结果显示:不考虑城市矿产循环利用的情景下,新能源汽车23种关键原材料中,锡的风险最高,铬、锗、钴的风险依次降低,锂的风险最低;在考虑城市矿产循环利用的情景下,这些关键原材料的全球供应风险有不同程度的下降,中高风险原材料种类减少,中低风险原材料种类增加。鉴于新能源汽车快速发展对其关键原材料的强劲需求,应尽快实施关键原材料的分类管理,加强城市矿产的开发利用,以提升新能源汽车关键原材料的保障能力。In recent years,new energy vehicle industry is experiencing phenomenal growth,which generates strong demand for critical minerals.Meanwhile,the supply risk of critical minerals is getting more and more serious.In this paper,we defined 23 critical minerals for new energy vehicles,including cobalt,nickel,lithium,rare earth elements.Then,a quantitative evaluation model which is comprised of three dimensions:geological,technological and economic dimension,social and regulatory dimension,and geopolitical dimension,was established to evaluate global supply risk of those critical minerals.This study further analyzed how risk would change un-der the consideration of resources recycling.The results indicate that,tin has the highest supply risk,followed by chromium,germanium and cobalt,while lithium enjoys the lowest supply risk.And their supply risk declines to some different content under the scenario of recycling.Particularly,if the minerals are recycled infinitely,the risk of Cr and Sn would fall into middle from middle-high,Co,Fe,Zn,Mn,Ag,Au,Ni,A1 would fall into low-middle from middle,and Cu would fall into low from middle.On the basis of the results,we proposes to build classification management system of critical minerals and develop urban minerals to satisfy the resources demand of new energy vehicle industry.

关 键 词：新能源汽车 关键原材料 供应风险 城市矿产 资源循环 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]