事故树-层次分析法的煤矿火灾救援路径综合预判优选  

Comprehensive prejudgment of coal mine fire rescue path optimization based on fault tree-analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：龚星宇[1] 常心坦[2] 贾澎涛[1] 张晋安[3] GONG Xingyu;CHANG Xintan;JIA Pengtao;ZHANG Jin’an(School of Computer Science and Technology,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China;School of Energy,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China;Shaanxi Information Center,Xi’an 710006,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学计算机科学与技术学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西安科技大学能源学院,陕西西安710054 [3]陕西省信息中心,陕西西安710006

出　　处：《现代电子技术》2018年第8期151-154,共4页Modern Electronics Technique

基　　金：西安市科技局计划项目(CX1519(3));西安科技大学培育基金(201746)~~

摘　　要：针对救援路径优选的综合预判,对事故相关因素作预警分析,提出基于事故树的逆向层次分析安全评价模型。通过现场调研、专家经验等方式遴选主要因素,构建出事故树-AHP层次结构模型;利用Saaty等人的1-9标度比较法和"专家系数法"建立基于信心指数法的主要指标成对比较专家判断矩阵;综合利用判断矩阵的几何平均特征、算术平均特征以及特征向量特征,采用"三级滤波法"逐层求解,确定反映判断矩阵特性的指标权值。为了对安全评价模型的应用效果进行验证,将其用于西北某煤矿一号井网络拓扑图的煤矿火灾救援路径综合预判模拟。实验结果表明,模型计算的权值结果与专家经验基本一致,验证了该方法的有效性。In allusion to the comprehensive prejudgment of rescue path optimization and warning analysis of fault-related factors,a safety evaluation model based on inverse hierarchical analysis of fault tree is proposed.The fault tree-AHP hierarchical structure model is constructed by means of selecting main factors with field investigation,expert experience and other methods.By using the 1 to 9-scale comparison method invented by people such as Saaty and expert coefficient method,expert judgment matrix based on confidence index method is built for pairvise comparison of main indicators.The indicator weight values that reflect the features of judgment matrix are determined by comprehensively utilizing the geometric mean characteristic,arithmetic mean characteristic and feature vector characteristic of the judgment matrix and adopting the three-level filtering method for layer-to-layer solutions.To verify the application effect of the safety evaluation model,the model was applied to the comprehensive prejudgment simulation for coal mine fire rescue path in network topology of the first well of a certain coal mine in northwest.The experimental results show that the weight value results by model calculation are basically consistent with the expert experience,and the validity of the method is verified.

关 键 词：安全评价 事故树 层次分析法 煤矿安全 井下救援 预警分析 专家经验 

分 类 号：TN820.4-34[电子电信—信息与通信工程] TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]