宁夏彭阳水质监测断面的水质评价及预测  

Water Quality Assessment and Prediction of Monitoring Section in Pengyang Ningxia

作　　者：李亚斌[1,2,3] 王海科 钱会[1,2] 徐盼盼[1,2] 黄涛[1,2] LI Ya-bin;WANG Hai-ke1;QIAN Hui;XU Pan-pan;HUANG Tao(School of Environment Science and Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an,Shanxi 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region,Ministry of Education,Chang'an University,Xi'an,Shanxi 710054,China;Shenyang Institute of Environmental Science,Shengyang,Liaoning 110167,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [3]沈阳环境科学研究院,辽宁沈阳110167

出　　处：《环境监测管理与技术》2018年第1期36-40,共5页The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"银川平原地下水对条件变化的响应机制及合理开发利用研究"资助项目(41172212)

摘　　要：基于2011—2015年茹河彭阳水质监测断面的水质数据,采用物元分析法对其断面水质进行评价;建立适用于该监测断面的马尔可夫预测模型对断面水质类别进行预测;同时依据平稳分布对各类水质的重现期作了分析。结果表明:彭阳水质监测断面水质为Ⅲ类;对马尔可夫链预测模型进行验证,满足预测精度;2015年9月和11月的水质类别预测结果均为Ⅲ类,且Ⅲ类水质出现的周期最短,属河流水质常态,其重现期为4.9个月,整体水质较好。Based on the data of the Pengyang section in the Ruhe River from 2011 to 2015,the water quality was evaluated by using matter element analysis model.Markov prediction model which was suitable for this section was build to forecast water quality,meanwhile the return period of all levels water quality were analyzed according to stationary distribution.The results indicated that the water quality in the Pengyang section was in levelⅢ.The Markov chain prediction model was verified to meet the demand of prediction accuracy.The water quality in September and November of 2015 was predicted at levelⅢ.This levelⅢwater quality was normal and lasted for a short period.Its return period was 4.9 months,and the whole water quality was better.

关 键 词：水质评价和预测 物元分析 马尔可夫链 茹河彭阳断面 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]