消费信贷政策与经济增长质量——基于第一主成分合成指数和FAVAR模型的实证  

The relationship between consumption credit policy and economic growth quality: Demonstration based on the first principal component composite index and FAVAR model

作　　者：李海央 LI Haiyang(School of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《重庆大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第3期46-57,共12页Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划项目"贝叶斯空间计量模型及其应用研究"(2015QNJJ12)

摘　　要：测算消费信贷政策与经济增长的关系单单从"量"的维度进行有失偏颇,在考量经济增长"质"与"量"的全面特性的基础上,探寻消费信贷政策与经济增长质量耦合关系中的作用效力更具系统性。文章从作用机理出发构建测度经济增长质量的评价指标体系,采用第一主成分分析法并以协方差矩阵作为输入,确定各基本指标的系数与特征根,测算各基本指标权重以求得各评价维度指数,并以同样方法求得总体层面上经济增长质量指数,进一步以FAVAR模型测算消费信贷政策对所求指数的作用效力。实证分析结果认为:中国经济增长质量、经济增长过程协调性、经济增长过程持续性和经济增长结果质量呈稳步上升态势,经济增长方式质量逐步下降,经济增长过程稳定性基本平稳;消费信贷政策对经济增长质量、经济增长方式质量、经济增长过程协调性、经济增长过程持续性和经济增长结果质量呈现不同程度的正向影响,对经济增长稳定性呈负向影响。It is biased to simply measure the relationship between consumption credit policy and economic growth from the dimension of“quantity”.It is more systematic to explore the action effect in the coupling relationship between consumption credit policy and economic growth quality based on investigating the comprehensive characteristics of economic growth“quality”and“quantity”.This paper constructs the evaluation index system for measuring economic growth quality starting from the mechanism of action,adopts the first principal component analysis method and takes covariance matrix as input,confirms the coefficient and characteristic root of each basic index,measures and calculates the weight of each basic index thus to gain the index of each evaluation dimension,achieves the economic growth quality index on the whole with the same method,and further measures the action effect of consumption credit policy act on the index solved with FAVAR model.The empirical analysis results show that,firstly,Chinese economic growth quality,economic growth process coordination,economic growth process sustainability,and economic growth result quality present the tendency of steadily rising,economic growth mode quality decreases gradually,while economic growth process is basically stable.Secondly,consumption credit policy presents the positive influence of different degrees on economic growth quality,economic growth mode quality,economic growth process coordination,economic growth process sustainability,and economic growth result quality,but it presents the negative influence on economic growth stability.

关 键 词：消费信贷政策 经济增长质量 第一主成分 FAVAR 两步主成分分析法 

分 类 号：F222.1[经济管理—国民经济]