高危行业人因违章风险的概率描述改进  

An Improvement in the Illustration how Deliberate Violation Influences the Possibility of Risk Occurrence in High-danger Industries

作　　者：石玉凤[1] 吴进辉 荣亚飞 SHI Yu-feng;WU Jin-hu;RONG Ya-fe(School of Management,China University of Mining&Technology(Beijing),100083,Beijing,PRC)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京市100083

出　　处：《曲阜师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第2期39-44,共6页Journal of Qufu Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2010YG15)

摘　　要：分析了高危行业违章行为的隐蔽性特点及其对风险管理者和研究者造成的困扰,并指出了违章出险概率的传统认知局限.界定基本概念,运用概率统计工具,从操作人员和风险管理者的角度探讨了违章出险概率的演化机理,并在理论层面上给出了违章出险内在机理概率描述的改进.最后,研究得到高危行业作业出险概率分解模型,总结出了"缩小分子法"和"零道德风险法"的风险管理理论建议.Analyze the hidden characteristics of the violation behavior and the couasion of the managers and researchers are analyzed.The traditional cognition limitations of the probability of risk occurrence in high-danger industries is pointed out.Starting with the basic concept,applying the probability theory and other mathematical tools,this paper analyzes the operating mechanism about the probability of risk occurrence of the violation in high-danger industries at the theoretical level,and the improved probability of risk occurrence of the violation was put forward,which was proved the rationality on the probability and practical application level.Finally,research on the decomposition model about the probability of risk occurrence of the operation in high-danger industries,and some risk management advice was proposed,such as"narrow molecular"and"zero moral hazard".

关 键 词：高危行业 风险管理 违章 道德风险 出险概率 

分 类 号：C931.1[经济管理—管理学]