基于HP滤波模型的山东省苹果价格波动特征及其影响因素分析  

Analysis on Cycle Fluctuation and Influence Factors of Apple Price Based on H-P Filtering Model in Shandong Province

作　　者：周霞[1] 郑艺雯 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271018 [2]山东省宁阳县金融办,山东宁阳271400

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第1期41-46,共6页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：山东省软科学研究计划重点项目(2013RZB01001);山东农业大学现代农业发展院项目(14xsk2-11);山东省高校人文社科基金项目(J11WF66)

摘　　要：本文运用HP滤波模型来测定2000-2015年山东苹果产业各环节的价格波动特征,研究发现山东苹果价格波动经历4个阶段,波动周期平均为4年;苹果零售价格、批发价格和收购价格增长幅度趋缓;零售价格增速最低,收购价格增速较快。运用回归模型分析波动影响因素,结果显示:生产成本和支农政策对苹果收购价格波动影响最大,苹果出口量直接影响着苹果的批发价格和零售价格,同时,居民收入也影响苹果批发价格。In this paper,it was measured that the price fluctuation characteristics of apple industry by using HP filter model from 2000 to 2015 in Shandong province. It was found that apple price fluctuation experienced four stages with an average fluctuation period of four years. The growth of retail price,whole sale price and purchase price increases to slowdown; retail prices grew at a low rate and the purchase price grew faster. Using the regression model to analyze the causes of volatility,it is found that the cost of pro-duction and the policy of supporting agriculture have the greatest impact on the fluctuation of apple purchase price. The apple export quantity directly affects the wholesale price and retail price of apple. At the same time,the income of the residents also affects the wholesale price of apple.

关 键 词：HP滤波模型 苹果价格波动 影响因素 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]