城乡二元结构下的人口红利的储蓄效应——基于动态面板门槛模型的实证分析  

The Saving Effect of the Demographic Dividend in the Dual Structure:Base on the Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Threshold Panel Model

作　　者：王树[1] 吕昭河[1] 姜迪 WANG Shu;LV Zhao-he;JIANG Di(Development Institute,Yunnan University,Kunming Yunnan 650091)

机构地区：[1]云南大学发展研究院,昆明650091

出　　处：《西北人口》2018年第3期1-9,共9页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"中国人口红利的代际分配效应研究"(项目编号:15BJL092)

摘　　要：本文旨在城乡二元结构的背景下来解释我国"人口红利"与"高储蓄率"两大热点现象,并探寻其内在联系及作用机理。自改革开放以来,人口红利在城乡之间具有不同的表征特点,而人口红利的出现同样为我国居民高储蓄率提供了新的内涵解释。本文首先通过系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)来分析储蓄率与抚养比之间的关系,研究发现:我国人口红利存在着乡城转移。其次,通过分城乡动态面板门槛模型发现,在不同的收入增长率门槛内,城乡之间呈现异质性的储蓄效应。经济欠发达城镇地区的居民为了少儿以及老人的抚养会消耗更多的居民储蓄,而经济较为发达地区的居民则更倾向于预防性养育以及养老储蓄。抚养比的增加会降低农村居民储蓄率。研究表明:我国高储蓄率来源于城镇人口的预防性储蓄,且农村的抚养负担加重将减少居民的储蓄率,城乡异质性储蓄行为源自于收入差距。The aim of this paper is to explain the two hot economic phenomena that were“Demographic Dividend”and“High Saving Rate”of our country in the dual economy background and research the internal connection and the mechanism of action.After the reforming,the demographic dividend has the different performing between the urban and rural.It also offers the new explanation for the high saving rate.First and foremost,this paper analyses the relationship between the save rate and the dependency ratio though the System Generalized Method of Moments(SYS-GMM),The heterogeneous saving effect has its root in the demographic dividend transfer from the rural to the urban.Moreover,accounting to the different income increase rate,this paper finds the heterogeneous saving effect through the dynamic threshold panel model.The undeveloped urban people will consume more saving for the young and the old.But the developed urban people attend to precautionary saving to raise the children and the senior citizens.The increasing of the dependency ratio will reduce the rural saving rate.The research finds that the reason of high saving is the urban precautionary saving,and the raise of the dependency ratio will reduce the rural saving.The reason to the heterogeneous saving effect is the income gap.

关 键 词：城乡二元结构 人口红利 储蓄效应 动态面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]