中部地区新型城镇化发展的区域特征及其影响因素分析  

Analysis to the Regional Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Central Region's New Urbanization Development

作　　者：陈恩[1] 谢珊一 CHEN En;XIE Shan-yi(School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广州510632

出　　处：《西北人口》2018年第3期18-26,共9页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：广东省普通高校人文社会科学重大攻关项目"港澳珠三角区域经济一体化研究"(102GXM79001);国家教育部人文社科基金资助项目"全球价值链视角下珠三角港澳台企业转型升级研究"(08JAGAT001);广东打造"理论粤军"基础理论重大招标项目"CEPA框架下粤港澳服务贸易自由化问题研究"(LLYT1319)

摘　　要：近年来,随着国家关于中部崛起等政策的出台,中部地区的发展成为国内众多学者关注的焦点。而新型城镇化发展作为中部发展的一个重要组成部分,对于拉动中部经济增长、促进中部地区的全面进步均作用巨大。本文基于中部地区1993~2015年间社会、经济、人口等方面数据,采用城镇常住人口比重、地区GDP总量、非农产业比重等对中部地区城镇化区域特征进行分析,并通过ADF检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验等对中部城镇化区域特征影响因素进行实证分析,据以提供些许促进其发展的政策建议,以供参考。结果显示,资源环境、要素投入、人口素质、社会服务是推动中部地区新型城镇化发展的格兰杰原因,且资源环境和要素投入为主要影响因素。Recently,as the government has issued some policies of the rise of central China,the development of the central region has become the focus of many domestic scholars.As an important part of the development of the central region,the new urbanization development plays a big role in stimulating economic growth and promoting the overall progress of the central region.Based on the data from 1993 to 2015 about society,economy and population of the central region,the thesis analyses the regional characteristics by using the proportion of urban permanent residents,regional GDP and the proportion of non-agricultural industry and etc.And then the thesis analyses empirically the influencing factors on the regional characteristics of urbanization development through the ADF test,cointegration analysis and granger causality test.According to the results,some suggestions for reference are provided in order to promote the development of the central region.The result indicates that resource environment,factor inputs,population quality and social services make sense to the development of the central region’s new urbanization,and the first two are the main factors.

关 键 词：中部 新型城镇化 区域特征 影响因素 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]