中国城镇家庭户数量、“家庭户城镇化率”变动及其贡献因素分析:1995～2015  

Changes in the Number of Urban Family Household,“Family Household Urbanization Rate” and Their Contributing Factors in China:1995～2015

作　　者：任正委[1,2] REN Zheng-wei(School of Law and Politics,ZSTU,HangzhouZhejiang 310018,China;Center for Ecological Civilization,ZSTU,HangzhouZhejiang 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学法政学院,杭州310018 [2]浙江理工大学浙江省生态文明研究中心,杭州310018

出　　处：《西北人口》2018年第3期52-60,共9页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题"城镇化进程中居民生活碳排放增长收敛的理论机制研究"(16JDGH086);浙江省自然科学基金青年项目"家庭户小型化对我国居民碳排放影响的机理与对策研究"(LQ18G030014);浙江理工大学科研启动基金项目"城镇化进程中居民节能减排的人口学因素研究"(16102202-Y)

摘　　要：本文测算1995~2015年城镇家庭户数量变动情况,计算"家庭户城镇化率",并分解不同的贡献因素对城镇家庭户数量和"家庭户城镇化率"变动的影响。研究发现:(1)1995~2013年城镇家庭户数量稳步增长,2013年以来出现下降,"家庭户城镇化率"随之放缓,相关贡献因素也出现新的变化;(2)城镇人口迁移增长和区划变动增长一直是主要贡献来源,但近年来贡献度有所减弱;(3)人口自然增长的贡献一直较小,"全面两孩"政策实施后有微弱增长;(3)近年来家庭户规模小型化、家庭户和集体户之间人口流动的方向都发生逆转,两者的贡献都"由正变负"。Population urbanization rate is calculated by the number of individuals,which only indicates the persons'residential places changing from rural to urban,but cannot indicate the changing process of family household.This paper analyzed changes in the number of urban family household,calculated family household urbanization rate,and decomposed their contributing factors in China from 1995 to 2015.Results revealed that urban family household growth steadily from 1995 to 2013,but declined after 2013,which followed by the changes of family household urbanization rate.From the mid-1990s,urban population growth led by migration and administrative zone changes occupied the largest share of contributing factors,but their contribution slowed down in recent years.Population's natural growth played a role,but its contribution is very small.The contributions of Household size shrinking and population mobility between family household and institutional household changed from positive to negative due to the changing direction of themselves.

关 键 词：家庭户数量变动 “家庭户城镇化率” 家庭户规模小型化 乡-城人口迁移 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理]