重大疫情防控的政府干预行为与优化策略——基于博弈论视角和中国2013年H7N9防控实践  

Government intervention behavior and optimization strategy of major epidemic control: Based on game theory and China's H7N9 prevention and control practice in 2013

作　　者：李燕凌[1] 王雯哲 王健[1] LI Yanling;WANG Wenzhe;WANG Jian(School of Public Management&Law,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学公共管理与法学学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第2期61-66,共6页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目(11&ZD171);国家社科基金青年项目(16CGL062)

摘　　要：基于博弈论视角建立人禽流感疫情传播扩散方程,并以中国2013年H7N9防控效果有关数据进行检验,结果表明该方程演绎结果与实际疫情扩散趋势一致。同时对政府救治、防控、宣传教育三类干预行为及其疫情控制效果进行分析,发现政府有的干预行为具有负面效应。因此,疫情防控的政府干预行为优化应以人为本,尊重科学,坚持干预行为主动性与谨慎性、疫情防控与舆情监管的辨证统一,不断提高政府干预行为的精准度,力求疫情防控取得最大社会效益、经济效益和生态效益。在救治、防控、宣传教育三类干预行为中,重点优化"发布有关医药防治预案""关闭或封锁重要场所、区域"、疫情信息日报告制度等防控方面的干预行为。The spread equation of avian influenza epidemic was established and tested based on the game theory and the data of China's H7N9 prevention and control effect in 2013.The results showed that the deductive result of the equation was consistent with the actual epidemic trend.At the same time,three kinds of intervention behavior including government treatment,prevention and control,publicity and education and epidemic control effect were analyzed.The results show that certain intervention behavior has negative effect.Therefore,the this paper proposes some suggestion:optimize the government intervention under the rule of people-oriented,respect for science,adhere to the dialectical unity of initiative and prudence,epidemic prevention and control and public opinion supervision,improve constantly the accuracy of government intervention,and strive to achieve the greatest social,economic and ecological benefits of the epidemic prevention and control.Among the three treatments mentioned above,the focus is to optimize the"release of medical prevention and control plans","close or blockade important places,areas"and information daily reporting system.

关 键 词：人禽流感疫情 政府干预 优化策略 演化博弈论 传染病SI模型 H7N9 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学]