基于模糊层次分析法的页岩气钻井井喷事故风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Shale Gas Drilling Blowout Accidents Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：李欢[1] 王涌川 LI Huan;WANG Yongchuan(Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074 China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2018年第2期126-130,共5页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：当前资源的短缺促进页岩气的开采,导致井喷事故频发。以某地页岩气钻井工程为实例,分析了页岩气钻井井喷事故的各种风险因素,并结合多层次结构模型确定各指标的权重,构建了模糊综合评价模型,对页岩气井喷风险进行了综合评价。通过将评价结果与实际情况相比较,验证了模型的可行性,并从地层环境、井控装备、人员管理及制度建设等方面提出了相应的风险控制措施,可为提高页岩气钻井安全作业提供帮助。The resource shortage promotes the development of shale gas,which brings about the frequent blowout accidents.Taking the drilling of shale gas somewhere as an example,this paper analyzes the various risk factors of drilling blowout,determines the weight of the indicators in combination with a hierarchy structure model,and sets up the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to objectively evaluate the blowout risk.Comparison between the model and the actual data proves the feasibility of the model.Finally,the paper puts forward corresponding risk control measures from the perspective of stratum environment,well control equipment,and personnel and management system,providing support for further improvment of shale gas drilling safety.

关 键 词：页岩气 井喷事故 模糊层次分析法 风险评价 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TE28[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]