梯级水库群系统洪水演进模拟及防洪安全评估  

Flood routing simulation and flood control safety assessment on cascade reservoir group system

作　　者：贺同坤 梁忠民[1] 程莉 黄华平[1] 胡义明[1] HE Tongkun;LIANG Zhongmin;CHENG Li;HUANG Huaping;HU Yiming(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China;College of Environment,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学环境学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2018年第3期33-38,共6页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项(2016YFC0402706);国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAB06B01);国家自然科学基金项目(51709073)

摘　　要：针对梯级水库群系统中上级水库泄洪对下级水库带来的水力传递影响,以评估水库群系统的安全隐患为目标,以澜沧江中游干流5个水库组成的梯级库群系统为例,运用同频率地区组合法推求库群系统的设计洪水过程。以此作为库群系统的输入条件,采用MIKE 11模型模拟当库群系统发生稀遇洪水时的沿程最高水面线,并与坝顶高程比较,对库群系统中大坝的防洪安全状况进行评价。结果表明:当库群系统发生5 000年一遇以下洪水时,各坝址处最高水位均低于坝顶高程;当发生10 000年一遇洪水时,其中两个水库(漫湾和景洪)的最高水位接近其坝顶高程,存在发生漫坝的风险,给整个库群系统的防洪安全带来一定隐患。研究成果对于提高库群所在的澜沧江中游地区的应急防洪能力具有重大的现实意义,为库区下游的安全生产和经济发展提供重要的保障。Aiming at the hydraulic transmission effect of the flood discharge from the upper-stage reservoirs in a cascade reservoir group on its lower-stage reservoirs,meanwhile,taking the assessment on the potential safety hazard of the reservoir group system as the study objective and taking the cascade reservoir group composed of five reservoirs along the main stream of the Mid-Lancangjiang River as the study case,the design flood hydrograph is derived with the equivalent frequency regional composition method.By taking this as the input condition of the reservoir group,the highest along-way water surface profiles when unusual flood occurs in the reservoir group system are simulated with MIKE 11 M odel,which are then compsired with the dam crest elevations for carrying out the assessments on the flood control safety statuses of the dams within the reservoir group system.The result shows that when the flood with the return-period of 5 000 years occurs in the reservoir group system,the highest water levels at all the dam sites are lower than the crest elevations of the dams,while when the flood with the return-period of 10 000 years occurs,the highest water levels of the two reservoirs(Manwan Reservoir and Jinghong Reservoir)among the reservoir group approach to the elevations of their dam crests,which have the risks of overtopping,thus bring certain potential hazards to the flood control safety of the whole reservoir group system.The study result has a great realistic significance for enhancing the emergency flood control capacity of the region along the Mid-Lanchangjiang River where the reservoir group is located and then providing an important guiding basis for the safe construction and economic development of the downstream region of the reservoir.

关 键 词：梯级水库群 防洪安全 设计洪水 MIKE11模型 澜沧江 溃坝 极端洪水 大坝安全 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]