基于熵权模糊的人口结构发展评价及预测  

Evaluation and forecast of population structure development based on entropy fuzzy

作　　者：郝云力[1] 杨楠清 王茂华[2] 韩旭斌 HAO Yun-li;YANG Nan-qing;WANG Mao-hua;Han Xu-bin(School of Information Engineering,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang Anhui 236041,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang Anhui 236037,China;Han Xubin Fuyang Civil Aviaion Authority,Fuyang Anhui 236040,China)

机构地区：[1]阜阳师范学院信息工程学院,安徽阜阳236041 [2]阜阳师范学院数学与统计学院,安徽阜阳236037 [3]阜阳市民用航空局,安徽阜阳236040

出　　处：《阜阳师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期4-7,共4页Journal of Fuyang Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(1141104);安徽省教育厅自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2016A555);阜阳师范学院校级项目(2015FSKJ13)资助

摘　　要：针对人口结构发展的模糊性和随机性,运用熵权法及模糊综合评价法建立人口结构可持续发展评价模型,以分析人口结构的可持续发展程度。根据人口结构的可持续发展程度制定适度调整人口结构的政策是人口可持续发展的保证。In recent years,strict control of family planning in China has played a major role in Chinese population growth.Under the guidance of the policy of prenatal and postnatal care,Chinese population quality has improved significantly,but there have been some negative effects,such as fertility rate is low,male and female imbalance,population aging and so on.The evaluation and prediction of the development of population structure has become one of the topics that need to be studied at present.Based on the reasonable population structure sustainable development index system,aiming at the fuzziness and randomness of population structure development,the sustainable development evaluation model of population structure is established by using entropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The population structure is carried out by gray forecasting model Forecast,thus determine how to make the population structure sustainable development.

关 键 词：人口结构 熵权法 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计]