气候变化条件下山东省未来水资源情势预估  

Prediction of Water Resources Situation in Shandong Province Under Climate Change

作　　者：刘健[1,2] 夏军[1] 王明森[2] 佘敦先[1] LIU Jian;XIA Jun;WANG Mingsen;SHE Dunxian(State Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment,Postdoctoral Innovation and Practice Base,Water Research Institute of Shandong Province,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]山东省水利科学研究院博士后创新实践基地山东省水资源与水环境重点实验室,山东济南250014

出　　处：《人民黄河》2018年第4期60-64,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(ZR2015EQ004);国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(41501053;41501030)

摘　　要：利用山东省实测降水资料、政府水资源公报数据,采用小波分析、数理统计等方法,预估了山东省未来水资源情势。结果表明:从目前到2030年左右,山东省降水将处于相对枯水期,受降水量减少和极端降水强度增大的影响,当地水资源量将减少、水资源开发利用难度将增大;黄河水和长江水等客水资源受到干流上游来水量减少、脆弱性增强、调蓄工程不完善、水价成本高等因素限制,未来情势不容乐观;目前山东省非常规水资源利用潜力较大,应在增大非常规水资源利用力度的同时,做好建设节水型社会、完善现代水网工程、提高水利工程调蓄能力等工作。Based on the observed precipitation and datasets from water resources bulletin,the water resources situation in Shandong Province were analyzed and predicted by using wavelet analysis method and mathematical methods of statistics.The results show that the precipitation in Shandong Province will experience a dry period from now to year 2030.Influenced by reduced precipitation and increase extreme precipitation intensity,the local water resources quantity will decrease and the exploiting of water resources will be more difficult.The situation will be aggravated by the increasing vulnerability,imperfect storage projects and high water price cost,of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project which is mainly affected by the decreased stream flow of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River.At present,there is still a large potential for the development and utilization of unconventional water resources in Shandong Province.Meanwhile,the government needs to establish water saving society,improve and perfect the modern water network engineering and enhance the storage capacity of water conservancy projects.

关 键 词：气候变化 水资源 情势预估 山东省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]