基于小波与R/S方法的库车绿洲最高和最低温度时间序列分析  

Analysis of Maximum and Minimum Temperature Time Series in Kuqa Oasis Based on Wavelet Analysis and R/S Methods

作　　者：白长江 高敏华[1,2] BAI Chang-jiang;GAO Min-hua(College of Resources&Environmental Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830000;Ecological Economics and Resource Utilization Research Office,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830000)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [2]生态经济与资源利用研究室,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2018年第11期45-48,51,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用库车绿洲1951—2014年气象观测资料,应用Morlet小波处理和R/S分析方法,进行气温变化趋势分析。结果表明,小波处理方法能够较好地突出历史时间序列的变化特征;Hurst指数可以分析出未来气候演变趋势,总体而言,平均最高温度将会缓慢降低,而平均最低温度将会缓慢升高,一方面有利于研究区农作物的生长,但同时也有利于害虫越冬,森林、农田将面临威胁。Using the meteorological observation data of Kuqa Oasis from 1951 to 2014,Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis were used to analyze the trend of temperature change.The results showed that the wavelet processing method could better highlight the changing features of historical time series.Hurst index could analyze the trend of future climate evolution.Overall,the average maximum temperature would slowly decrease,while the average minimum temperature would slowly increase.On the one hand it was conducive to the growth of crops in the study area,but also conducive to the pests overwintering.Forests and farmland would be threatened.

关 键 词：小波分析 R/S分析 气温变化 农作物 库车绿洲 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]