基于结构熵权法的长江下游水资源承载力评价——以南京市为例  

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in lower reaches of Yangtze River based on structural entropy method: a case study of Nanjing

作　　者：孙雅茹 董增川[1] 周毅[2] 冯胜男 SUN Yaru;DONG Zengchuan;ZHOU Yi;FENG Shengnan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《人民长江》2018年第7期47-51,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：江苏省典型地区水资源环境承载能力提升研究项目(2016003);"十二五"国家重点研发计划项目"面向荷载均衡的水资源协同配置理论研究"(2016YFC0401306)

摘　　要：水资源承载力的研究对于区域发展具有重要推动作用,对水资源的开发利用进行科学合理的规划,以南京市为例,根据其水资源承载力的内涵和影响因素,从水资源、社会、经济和生态环境几个方面选取了相应的评价指标,构建了指标评价体系,以对该市的水资源承载力进行评价。利用结构熵权法,将主观赋值法与客观赋值法相结合以确定各指标的权重,并结合可变模糊法对南京市的水资源承载力进行评价。评价结果表明:南京市水资源承载力在2005年处于较弱的水平,在2010,2015年和2020年均处于中等水平,根据其综合评分,可以看出南京市的水资源承载力整体上呈现出了提高的趋势。Study on water resources carrying capacity and scientifically and rationally planning on the development and utilization of water resources can promote the regional development.By taking Nanjing as an example,we built an evaluation index system to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Nanjing based on several evaluation indexes selected from water resource,society,economy and ecological environment according to the connotation and influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity.Structure Entropy Weight Method that determines the weight of each index by subjective and objective assignment methods,is combined with variable fuzzy method to evaluate water resources carrying capacity of Nanjing.The result shows that the water resources carrying capacity of Nanjing is at the weak level in 2005 and at a medium level in 2010,2015 and 2020,showing an improving trend according to the comprehensive scores.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 结构熵权法 可变模糊法 南京市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]