基于风涌浪分离理论的波浪能短期预测  

Short-term prediction on marine wave based on theory of wind-wave and swell separation

作　　者：朱寿建 李慧 吴迪[3] 苏俊玮 ZHU Shoujian;LI Hui;WU Di;SU Junwei(China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210009,China;Sichuan Dachuan Power Limited Company,Chengdu 610073,China;College of Harbor,Costal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]中国能源建设集团江苏省电力设计院有限公司,江苏南京210009 [2]四川大川电力有限公司,四川成都610073 [3]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《人民长江》2018年第7期77-80,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"近海可再生能源综合发电基础研究"(51137002);江苏省自然科学基金重点项目"江苏沿海大规模潮流能发电技术基础研究"(BK2011026)

摘　　要：近海可再生能源输出功率的预测对其控制与调度运行具有重要的意义。由于波浪的随机性很强,现有的时间序列法对波浪的短期预测不具有普适性。为此针对波浪能发电功率预测,基于波浪能原理提出了一种新的时间序列预测方法,即先将风浪与涌浪分离后再与时间序列法ARIMA结合进行波浪能的短期预测。依据具体波浪数据,对改进预测方法进行了有效性验证。结果表明:相比以往单独采用时间序列方法进行预测,该方法能够有效改善预测效果,提高预测范围和精度。The prediction of output power of offshore renewable energy is of great significance for the control and operation of marine renewable energy facilities.Due to the strong randomness of wave,the existing time series method is not universal for the short-term prediction of wave.Therefore,aiming at the prediction of wave power generation,a new time series method is presented based on the principle of wave theory,which first identifies and separates the wind-wave and swell and then combines with ARIMA time series method to predict short-time wave.According to the wave data of an offshore renewable energy farm,the effectiveness of the new prediction method is verified.The results show that compared with previous method that only applies time series,the new method can effectively improve the prediction effect with a wider prediction range and better accuracy.

关 键 词：波浪能 短期预测 风涌浪分离 ARIMA时间序列法 

分 类 号：TV734[水利工程—水利水电工程]