探讨与汶川地震有关的焦点科学问题  

Discussion on Key Scientific Issues Related to the Wenchuan Earthquake

作　　者：薛雷[1,2,3] 秦四清 杨百存[1,2,3] 张珂 陈竑然 XUE Lei;QIN Si-qing;YANG Bai-cun;ZHANG Ke;CHEN Hong-ran(Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Institutions of Earth Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences 3,Beijing 100049,China))

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院地球科学研究院,北京100029 [3]中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院,北京100049

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2018年第11期1-15,共15页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41572311;41302233)资助

摘　　要：基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论和新划定的3.6版汶川地震区,再次探讨了与2008年汶川地震有关的若干科学问题,包括该震是否为主震?该震、2013年芦山MS7.0地震、2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震之间关系?该震是否存在复发周期?该震发生前是否存在显著物理前兆?该震与紫坪铺水库之间关系?研究结果表明:汶川地震并非汶川地震区当前地震周期主震,未来将发生MS8.0~8.3标志性地震;2013年芦山地震和2017年九寨沟地震有直接联系且均与汶川地震密切相关,两者同为下一次标志性地震前的两次显著预震;汶川地震区标志性地震及其未来主震是否存在复发周期目前尚不能作出明确判断;在汶川地震前,由于自1995年12月18日后其震源体的物理状态长期保持近似不变,故不可能观测到显著的中长期与短临物理前兆;紫坪铺水库对汶川地震孕育过程的影响很小,可以忽略。Based on both the lately-defined Wenchuan seismic zone(version 3.6)and the theory about the brittle failures of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system,several scientific issues related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were reanalyzed,e.g.,“Is the Wenchuan earthquake a mainshock?”,“What's the relationship among the 2013 M S7.0 Lushan earthquake,2017 M S7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake and the Wenchuan earthquake?”,“Is there the recurrence interval of the Wenchuan earthquake?”,“Is there obvious earthquake precursors before the Wenchuan earthquake?”,and“Is there the connection between the Zipingpu reservoir and the Wenchuan earthquake?”.The present results show that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is not the mainshock in the current seismic period of the Wenchuan seismic zone and a M S8.0~8.3 characteristic earthquake will strike this seismic zone;there is a direct connection between the 2013 Lushan earthquake and 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake that were closely related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and were two significant preshocks occurred between the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the expected M S8.0~8.3 characteristic earthquake;It cannot be judged at present whether there exist recurrence intervals of the characteristic earthquakes and the mainshock in the Wenchuan seismic zone relying on currently available data;because the physical state of the seismic source since December 18,1995 had remained approximately unchanged,obvious medium-long-term,short-term and imminent earthquake precursors to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake could not been observed;the Zipingpu reservoir had a tiny effect on the generation process of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,which could be ignored.

关 键 词：锁固段 汶川地震 芦山地震 九寨沟地震 复发周期 地震前兆 紫坪铺水库 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]