TEI@I框架下的交通道路脆性预测模型研究  

Transform brittle forecasting model based on the TEI@I research frame

作　　者：沈书立 李祥飞[2] SHEN Shu-li;LI Xiang-fei(School of Management and E-Business,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 300018,China;School of Management,Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学管理工程与电子商务学院,浙江杭州300018 [2]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2018年第2期240-247,共8页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71503178);国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(13ASH003);浙江省科技厅公益项目(2016C33172)

摘　　要：交通道路的重要作用使得其成为受到风险影响后的关键环节,灾害事故的发生往往具有不可预测性,但若能及时监测道路的抗风险能力则能及时调度和部署资源在薄弱环节,则可能降低事故发生后造成的巨大损失。本研究以TEI@I系统分析方法为指导思想,从系统理论出发,提出测量道路交通抗风险能力的熵值监测法。在此基础上引入Hilbert-Huang变换、支持向量机的熵值预测法,研究结果表明该方法具有较好的应用前景,对于指导交通应急管理工作具有重要的参考意义。The important role of traffic always makes it become key factor after break out disasters or accidents which occurrence tends to be probabilistic and unpredictable.However,the resources could be scheduling at the vulnerable spot and reduce the tremendous loss after the accident if the anti-risk ability of the road could be timely monitored.The existing research are mainly focused on the traffic monitoring algorithm,however there still have problems of higher miscarriage rate,long testing time,low robustness,etc.In addition,the existing classification methods are difficult to distinguish the traffic abnormal state and found the cause making gradual change of the traffic incident,which could not meet the exact requirements of emergency traffic management.In order to cope with the effects of disasters or accidents,monitoring and evaluating the withstand ability of road to disasters and accidents are necessary.The optimal method of real-time monitoring which needs more manpower,material resources and long observation time often focused on one of the key sections and has high cost,moreover,it always be restricted by its own special local conditions.Road system which capacity is influenced by many factors has the characteristics of typical complex system.A complete road system is composed of several subsystems.When a subsystem suffers certain damage,it will be broken and leading to the collapse of the whole system.This damage we called brittle events which have characteristics of potentiality,stealthiness,burstiness and complexity etc.It is difficult to predict the outbreak of brittle events which damage to the road systems,nevertheless,if we can detect the orderly degree of the whole system,the anti-risk ability of the road could be under detection and control.Therefore this research used TEI@I research frame as guiding ideology and introduced the concept of entropy used to measure the brittle degree based on the complex system theory.Based on this,support vector machine(SVM)and Hilbert-Huang transform method were int

关 键 词：HILBERT-HUANG变换 交通道路 脆性 熵 预测模型 

分 类 号：F50[经济管理—产业经济]