我国农业碳排放的影响因素和南北区域差异分析  

Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emission and Regional Differences Between South and North in China

作　　者：韦沁[1] 曲建升[1,2] 白静[1] 李恒吉 刘莉娜[1] 徐丽[1] WEI Qin;QU Jian-sheng;BAI Jing;LI Heng-ji;LIU Li-na;XU Li(Key Laboratory of Western China′s Environmental Systems,Ministry of Education/College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Lanzhou Information Center,Chinese Academy of Science,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室/资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院西北生态资源环境研究院兰州文献情报中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《生态与农村环境学报》2018年第4期318-325,共8页Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602803)

摘　　要：为探究我国农业碳排放的影响因素和南北区域的差异性,根据1999—2014年中国农业生产的相关数据,基于主要农作物(小麦、水稻和玉米)、农药、化肥、农膜、农业灌溉、农业机械等主要农业投入碳源,对除香港、澳门、台湾之外的31个省、自治区和直辖市的农业碳排放量进行测算,并利用卡雅(Kaya)恒等式分析其影响因素,利用泰尔(Theil)指数分析农业碳排放强度的区域差异。结果表明:(1)我国农业碳排放量呈逐年上升趋势,农业产业结构优化、农业人口整体减少等因素会抑制农业碳排放量增长,而农业经济发展会增加农业碳排放量。(2)从空间分布来看,总体上北方农业碳排放量大于南方地区,单位面积碳排放呈总体上升趋势,单位产值碳排放呈总体下降趋势。从区域内部来看,Theil指数显示我国农业碳排放强度的区域差异主要来自区域内,其中南方农业碳排放强度差异高于北方。在南北区域中沿海地区内差异逐渐减小,西北和西南地区内差异逐渐增大。最后,跟据上述研究结果提出相关建议。In order to explore the main factors affecting agricultural carbon emission and differences between North and South China,agricultural carbon emissions in 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities(Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan not covered)were calculated based on relevant data and information available in the Agricultural Yearbooks of 1990-2014 concerning main sources of carbon input in agriculture,such as staple crops(wheat,rice and corn),pesticide,chemical fertilizer,plastic film,agricultural irrigation,farming machines and some others,for analysis of their affecting factors and regional differences in agricultural carbon emission intensity using the Kaya identical equation and Theil index,separately.Results show:(1)The agricultural carbon emission in China has been on a gradual upward trend in recent years.Some factors like the optimization of agricultural industrial structure can restrain the growth of agricultural carbon emissions.The development level of agricultural economy will promote the increase of agricultural carbon emissions.(2)In terms of spatial distribution,agricultural carbon emission is generally higher in the northern part of the country than in the southern.The intensity of agricultural carbon emission per unit of crop area is showing a rising tendency and that per unit of agricultural output a decreasing tendency.From the perspective of the regions per se,their Theil indices demonstrate that regional difference in agricultural carbon emission intensity primarily stemmed from inside of the regions.The difference in agricultural carbon emission intensity is greater in the southern part than in the northern and narrowing in the coastal areas in both parts.The differences within the northwest and southwest areas are gradually expanding.Some suggestions based on the above-listed findings are proposed.

关 键 词：农业碳排放强度 THEIL指数 Kaya恒等式 区域差异 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程]