匹配域投影降尺度方法在河南省夏季降水预测中的应用及检验  

Application and Evaluation of Pattern Projection Downscaling Method in the Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Henan

作　　者：史恒斌[1,2] 梁俊平[3] 吴璐 Shi Hengbin;Liang Junping;Wu Lu(CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Provincial Climate Center,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局.河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气候中心,郑州450003 [3]河南省气象局,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2017年第4期70-75,共6页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：河南省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(Z201606;KM201812)资助

摘　　要：根据河南省夏季降水数据和BCC-CGCM、ECMWF-SYSTEM4模式资料,利用匹配域投影降尺度方法对河南省夏季降水进行预测,结果表明:1)匹配域投影降尺度方法对河南省夏季降水具有较好的预测能力,且较原始模式稳定。除了河南省中部地区外,其他大部分地区的Ps评分都在60分以上。2)在交叉验证期,两个模式的降尺度预测Ps评分分别比原始模式的提高了20.2%和16.3%,但ECMWF-SYSTEM4模式降尺度预测的平均分达到了71.2分,较BCC-CGCM模式的降尺度预测平均分偏高1.6分。在交叉验证期的26年中,有62%以上的年份,降尺度预测方法都对原始模式有正的订正技巧。3)2009—2013年的独立样本检验表明,匹配域投影降尺度方法比原始模式预测Ps评分提高了40%左右,表明该降尺度方法对夏季降水具有较好的预测能力。4)该方法可以在业务上应用,图形界面程序的研发,更方便了业务应用。Using summer precipitation data of Henan province,BCC-CGCM and ECMWF-SYSTEM4 model data,a pattern projection downscaling method was used to predict summer precipitation in Henan province.The results are as follows.1)The prediction result of pattern projection downscaling method is better and more stable than original model prediction.The Ps score of most region in Henan province is higher than 60 except central region.2)In the cross-validation period,the two model’s downscaled forecast Ps scores are higher than the original models by 20.2%and 16.3%,but the Ps score of ECMWF-SYSTEM4 downscaled prediction is 71.2,1.6 higher than the BCC-CGCM downscaled prediction score.In 62%years of the 26 years cross-validation period,downscaling prediction method has a positive correction.3)The results of independent sample evaluation from 2009 to 2013 show that the predictions of pattern projection downscaling method Ps scores for Henan province improve 40%than original model,indicating that the pattern projection downscaling method for summer precipitation of Henan province has good predictive ability.4)The method can be applied in operation,a graphical interface program has been established,which is more convenient for operation applications.

关 键 词：匹配域投影 夏季降水 预测 气候模式 检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]