基于Gamma过程的机车车轮镟修里程预测方法  

Prediction Method of Locomotive Wheel Degradation Based on Gamma Process

作　　者：张义民[1,2] 林禄样 吕昊 ZHANG Yi-min;LIN Lu-yang;LYU Hao(School of Mechanical Engineering&Automation,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China;School of Mechanical Engineering,Shenyang University of Chemical Technology,Shenyang 110142,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学机械工程与自动化学院,辽宁沈阳110819 [2]沈阳化工大学机械工程学院,辽宁沈阳110142

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第4期522-526,共5页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51605083;U1234208);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(N160304005);辽宁省教育厅高等学校优秀人才支持计划项目(LJQ2015081);辽宁省科技厅博士科研启动基金资助项目(201601166)

摘　　要：根据实测的机车车轮磨耗数据,利用非平稳Gamma过程,建立机车车轮轮缘的退化模型,运用a,b两种方法结合轮缘磨耗阈值预测95%可靠度时的镟修里程.a方法利用Bootstrap方法随机生成一组伪寿命的经验分布,以Weibull分布拟合预测镟修里程为47.39万km.b方法利用基于最大熵值原理的二次四阶矩方法,预测镟修里程为48.89万km.结果表明:与经验分布相比,a方法的的寿命较为保守,b方法的失效分布更吻合,可确定镟修里程为45万km.According to measured wheel wear data,the nonstationary Gamma process was used to establish the degradation model of locomotive wheel rim,and the repair time of 95%reliability was predicted by using the two methods a and b combined with wheel rim wear threshold.Method a uses the Bootstrap method to randomly generate a set of empirical distributions of pseudo-life,with Weibull distribution fitting forecasting repair time of 473 900 km.Method b uses the secondary fourth-order moment method based on the maximum entropy to predict the repair time of 488 900 km.The results showed that the lifetime of method a is more conservative than that of the empirical method,and the failure distribution of method b is more consistent with that of the experience distribution,and the repair time is 450 000 km.

关 键 词：非平稳Gamma过程 磨耗 退化模型 二次四阶矩 WEIBULL分布 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]