中国、OECD国家及全球能源消费领域的杰文斯悖论观察  

An Observation of Jevons' Paradox on Energy Consumption in China,OECD Members and Global Countries

作　　者：周吉光 张举钢 杨红瑞[3] 李翼恒 张江 ZHOU Ji-guang;ZHANG Ju-gang;YANG Hong-rui;LI Yi-heng;ZHANG Jiang(Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050031;Hebei Finance University,Baoding,Hebei 071051)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学学术传播中心,河北石家庄050031 [2]河北地质大学自然资源资产资本研究中心,河北石家庄050031 [3]河北金融学院国际教育学院,河北保定071051 [4]河北地质大学会计学院,河北石家庄050031 [5]河北地质大学数理学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《河北地质大学学报》2018年第2期43-50,共8页Journal of Hebei Geo University

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目"杰文斯悖论的经验性研究及对资源开发利用模式的启示"(HB14LJ004)

摘　　要：在回顾杰文斯悖论的理论研究基础上,论文分三个组别对1990年—2015年中国、OECD国家及全球能源消费领域的历史数据进行了观察,测算得出无论是部门经济还是整体经济,回弹效应均较明显,基本都呈现出了逆反效应,可见存在着明显的杰文斯悖论。随后,IPAT方程被引入检验过程,显示出:技术进步的确显著地降低了能源使用量,但与此同时也催生了经济增长,在引致更大能源消费需求的同时带来了更大的能源使用量,不仅大幅抵消了效率提高带来的能耗节约,甚至超过了初始的能源消费量。最后,论文认同单纯的能效政策很难降低能源消耗,宜将传统效率措施与多维资源、环境政策有效结合,从改变消费行为入手,应对能效政策的回弹效应,以最大限度地提高节能政策的有效性。Based on the review of Jevons paradox,the essay observes the historical data of energy consumption which have been divided into three groups as in China,OECD Members and Global Countries from 1990 to 2015.The calculation shows that the rebound effects in both sector economy and overall economy are distinct,and most of them demonstrate a backfire effect that can prove to be an obvious Jevons paradox.Subsequently,the IPAT equation is introduced into the testing process,showing that technological advance does significantly reduce energy use,but at the same time it generates economic growth that leads to greater energy consumption demand and meanwhile increases the energy use,and which is greatly offsetting the energy savings resulting from increased efficiency,even exceeding the initial energy consumption.Finally,the essay endorses that simple energy efficiency policy is very difficult to reduce the consumption,and it is advisable to combine traditional efficiency measures with multidimensional resources and environmental policies,start with changing consumption behavior,and respond the rebound effect of energy efficiency policy to maximize the effectiveness of energy saving policies.

关 键 词：杰文斯悖论 能源消费 回弹效应 逆反效应 IPAT 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]