基于相似日选取的马尔科夫短期负荷预测方法  

Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Similar Days and Markov

作　　者：李娜[1] LI Na(Taiyuan Institute of Technology,Taiyuan 030008,China)

机构地区：[1]太原工业学院,山西太原030008

出　　处：《电工技术》2018年第4期86-88,共3页Electric Engineering

摘　　要：为了提高短期负荷预测的精度,提出了一种基于相似日选取的马尔科夫短期负荷预测方法。通过层次聚类分析找到与预测日情况相似的历史日,然后将相似日数据作为样本数据,采用马尔科夫方法进行负荷预测,并通过算例计算验证了该方法能够提高预测精度。In order to improve the precision of short-term power load forecasting,a Markov short-term power load forecasting model based on similar days was proposed.A historical day similar to the forecast day was found by hierarchical cluster analysis.The similar day data were used as sample data and the load forecasting used Markov method to forecasting.The calculation results showed that the method could improve the prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：短期负荷预测 相似日 层次聚类 马尔科夫 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]