中国碳排放权交易试点机制的减排有效性评估及影响要素分析  

The key elements analysis from the mitigation effectiveness assessment of Chinese pilots carbon emission trading system

作　　者：王文军[1] 谢鹏程[1] 李崇梅 骆志刚[1] 赵黛青[1] WANG Wen-jun;XIE Peng-cheng;LI Chong-mei;LUO Zhi-gang;ZHAO Dai-qing(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;College of Humanities,Sichuan Agricultural University, Yaan Sichuan 625041,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室、广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室,广东广州510640 [2]四川农业大学人文学院,四川雅安625041

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第4期26-34,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“碳税与碳交易机制的行业管理优势与效率研究”(批准号:15YJAZH024);广东省低碳发展专项资金项目“结合主体功能区规划的广东省低碳发展研究”(批准号:ZHC201606);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“广东能源部门应对气候变化--减缓与适应行动的协同关系研究”(批准号:GD16CGL02)。

摘　　要：驱动管理对象减少二氧化碳排放是碳排放权交易机制的一项重要功能。基于碳排放权交易机制的减排机理和倍差法原理构建碳排放权交易机制减排有效性评价方法,通过碳排放权配额总量松弛度计算、管理对象分别在对照期和实验期的相对减排率测算比较,建立起机制减排有效性充分必要条件的判断矩阵,对我国7个碳交易试点机制进行减排有效性的评价和分析,提炼出影响碳交易机制减排有效性的要素,为国家碳交易机制运行提供参考。研究表明:在管理对象具有减排潜力的情况下,如果配额总量供给低于碳排放需求,碳交易机制能有效地发挥促进减排的作用;当管理对象处于边际减排效应递减阶段时,配额总量的松紧程度对碳交易机制的减排有效性影响不大;碳交易机制所处经济体的整体碳排放水平和经济结构变化程度对减排有效性具有较大的影响。影响碳交易机制减排有效性有4个关键要素:碳交易机制管理对象的减排潜力大小、配额总量松紧度、碳价水平和经济波动幅度。建议:(1)优先选择减排潜力大的企业进入碳交易机制,对行业的减排潜力进行预评估,根据减排潜力大小设置合理的配额总量;(2)对配额总量设定采取定期评估与调整机制;(3)运用财政或金融手段将碳价维持在合理的价格水平区间内,使其发挥刺激企业采取主动减排行动;(4)允许地方政府根据本地经济环境状态对碳交易机制的部分要素进行因地制宜的调整,以增强碳交易机制的减排有效性。The major designed function of the carbon trading mechanism is to promote carbon emission reduction.This paper built an assessment framework of ETS mitigation effect based on China’s pilots ETS and DID method;by calculating CO 2 emission quota slack,comparing the emission reduction rate in the control period and experimental period,the judgment matrix of the necessary and sufficient conditions for the emission reduction effectiveness is established,and the emission reduction effectiveness of 7 carbon trading pilot mechanisms in China is evaluated and analyzed;and the factors that influence the effectiveness of carbon trading mechanism emission reduction are extracted,providing a reference for the operation of the national carbon trading mechanism.Research shows that:with the reduction potential of object in the management of the case,if the total supply of carbon emissions quota is lower than demand,carbon trading mechanism can effectively promote emission reduction effect;when the management object is in the marginal abatement effect decline stage,the degree of tightness of total quota has weak influence on the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction of carbon trading mechanism;the carbon emission level and the change of economic structure of carbon trading mechanism of the economy has a significant influence on the effectiveness of emission reduction.Analysis shows that there are four key elements of influencing mitigation effect of ETS:mitigation potential of the management object,CO 2 emission quota design,carbon price,and the external economic fluctuations.This paper drew following suggestions:①the enterprises with the potential of reducing emissions should be selected to enter the carbon trading mechanism,and the pre-assessment of the emission reduction potential of the industry should be done,and the reasonable total quota should be set according to the potential of emission reduction;②we should set the evaluation and adjustment mechanism for the CO 2 emission quota;③we should keep the carbon pr

关 键 词：中国碳交易试点 减排效果评估 二氧化碳减排 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]