农地规模化流转对粮食产量的影响——基于上海郊区的实证分析  

The Influence of Grain Production be Greatly Enhanced after Scaled Farmland Transfer:Based on Empirical Analysis of Shanghai Suburb

作　　者：牛星[1,2] 吴岳婷 吴冠岑[3] NIU Xing;WU Yue-ting;WU Guan-cen(School of Social and Public Administration,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China;Innovation Base of Public Management and Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Management,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院,上海200237 [2]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策创新基地,上海200433 [3]上海大学管理学院,上海200444

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2018年第2期116-126,共11页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CJY068);复旦大学博士后基金项目(2014M560300)

摘　　要：基于实证区域农地流转和粮食生产的现状,旨在分析农地规模化流转对粮食生产的影响。在对上海市农村土地流转和粮食生产情况进行定性分析的基础上,构建Nerlove模型对两者的相关性进行实证分析,应用Eviews软件构建线性回归方程,验证和解释实地情况。研究发现,上海郊区农地流转后土地主要用于粮食生产;农地流转率与粮食产量呈负相关。据此,研究认为,农地规模化流转后,短期内粮食单产有所下降,从而导致粮食总产量减少;此外,流转农地的"碎片化"、"非粮化"和"非农化"都影响了农地规模效益的产出,从土地用途、农业科技和规模经营角度提出了对策建议。This paper,based on the qualitative analysis of Shanghai farmland transfer and grain production,carried out empirical analysis using the Nerlove model to analyze the data of linear regression equation obtained by Eviews software.The result showed that farmland transfer rate of Shanghai rural area exceeded 70%,which was in the first place in the country.The farmland transferred was used primarily for grain production;and the grain total output was negatively influenced by farmland transfer rate.Finally,the paper concluded that grain yield per unit area in Shanghai rural region was decreased in recent years with the scaled transfer of farmland,which resulted to reduction of total grain yield.Furthermore,some other factors also influenced grain production negatively,such as“fragmentation”,“non-crop cultivation”and“non-agricultural operation”of farmland transfer.Based on the above conclusions and analysis,some policy countermeasures were put forward in the view of land use regulation,agricultural science and technology,and farmland scale management.

关 键 词：农地流转 粮食生产 NERLOVE模型 上海 

分 类 号：F321.1251[经济管理—产业经济]