增加土地供给能否有效抑制房价上涨——利用“撤县设区”的准实验研究  

Can Land Supply Growth Restrain the Housing Price Effectively——Quasi-experimental Research on “Turning Counties into Districts”

作　　者：张清源[1] 苏国灿 梁若冰[1] ZHANG Qingyuan;SU Guocan;LIANG Ruobing(Xiamen University,361005)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2018年第4期20-34,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然基金面上项目"交通设施的空间网络特征及异质性产业集聚效应研究"(71573218)

摘　　要：为抑制重点城市房价的过快上涨,近年来我国政府出台了很多调控政策。其中,供给侧的土地调控是近期以来的重点。虽然关于土地供给与房价的关系已有很多学者关注,但由于两者之间存在很强的内生性,导致得到的结论不一,甚至出现完全相反的情况。基于此,本文首先通过建立一个静态局部均衡模型,说明政府的土地供给行为对房价的影响机制;其次创新性地利用"撤县设区"这一准自然实验,并基于2000—2013年中国267个地级市的面板数据,运用PSM-DID方法研究了土地供给对城市房价的影响,很好地规避了两者的内生性问题。研究表明,土地供给规模的扩大的确有助于降低城市的房价水平。这一结论在排除城镇化推动商品房市场需求增长的情况后依然成立。因此,扩大土地供给规模以缓解供需矛盾是调控我国中心城市房价的有效手段。China has introduced a lot of control policies to curb the excessively rapid rises of house prices in key cities in recent years.The land regulation on the supply side has been the focus recently.Although many scholars care about the relationship between land supply and housing price,the results are always inconsistent or even opposite due to the existence of strong endogeneity.This paper firstly establishes a static partial equilibrium model to explore the influence mechanism of land regulation on housing price.To avoid endogeneity,we utilize the policy experiment of“turning counties into districts”in 2000-2013 in China and apply the PSM-DID method to study the effect of land supply on housing prices.The results show that the expansion of land supply has helped to bring down the housing prices,and it is still applicable even though we take into account that urbanization could lead to a rise in housing demand.Therefore,expanding the land supply scale to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand is an effective means to regulate the housing price in core cities of China.

关 键 词：土地供给 商品房价格 撤县设区 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]