基于改进型学习曲线理论的风电产业学习率估计  

Estimating the Learning Rate of Wind Power Industry Based on the Modified Learning Curve Theory

作　　者：迟春洁[1] 麻易帆 CHI Chunjie;MA Yifan(East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237)

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2018年第5期69-77,共9页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"不确定技术学习及系统空间重构下的技术采纳优化"(71571069);华东理工大学基本科研业务费专项基金"计算实验金融方法的研究与应用"(222201718006)

摘　　要：本文考虑影响单位风电成本的三个变量——累计装机容量、研发投资和风电规模报酬,基于学习曲线理论构建改进型风电学习模型,并根据三个不定参数设计不同情景组合,通过回归分析来估计风电产业的技术学习率。研究结果表明:每当累计装机容量翻倍时,单位投资成本下降13.76%;每当知识存量翻倍时,单位投资成本下降10.77%;规模报酬的系数为正,表明风电制造的规模报酬递减;估算的研发滞后时间为1年,知识折旧率为9%,单位投资成本下降的预计最小值为0.6元/瓦。以上结论有助于揭示中国风电产业的技术学习状况,为企业研发管理提供参考。This paper,based on the learning curve theory,builds a modified learning model of wind power which considers accumulative installed capacity,R&D investment and returns-to-scale.Constructing a series of different scenarios designed by three indefinite parameters and using multiple regression analysis,this paper is aimed at estimating the technology learning rate in the wind power industry in China.The results reveal that:the unit cost decreases by 13.76%every time the accumulative installed capacity is doubled,and by 10.77%every time the knowledge stock is doubled;the coefficient of returns-to-scale is positive,which means there is a decreasing returns-to-scale in the wind power industry;the effect of R&D investment on wind power technology was taken after around one year,the depreciation rate of knowledge stock was around 9%,and predicted decreased minimum unit cost is 0.6 Yuan/W.These conclusions would help reveal the technology learning status of the wind power industry in China and offer suggestions on R&D management.

关 键 词：风电产业 技术学习率 学习曲线 情景分析 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F407[经济管理—产业经济]